Florida Panthers at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Brady TkachukGoals1
- Seth JonesAssists1
- Brady TkachukPoints1
Senators- Tim StutzleGoals1
- Jake SandersonAssists2
- Tim StutzlePoints2
Scoring summary
- P314:57Stephen Halliday Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (8)1–5
- P37:58Warren Foegele Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (3), Drake Batherson (3)1–4
- P217:18Shane Pinto Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (2)1–3
- P29:34Claude Giroux Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolas Matinpalo (1)1–2
- P114:13Tim Stützle Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (1), Stephen Halliday (2)1–1
- P110:00Brady Tkachuk Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (12), Seth Jones (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:00Brady Tkachuk Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (12), Seth Jones (10)FLA 1 – 0 OTT · FLA 43% → 59% +16FLA 43% → 59%+16 pts
- P114:13Tim Stützle Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (1), Stephen Halliday (2)FLA 1 – 1 OTT · OTT 40% → 57% +17OTT 40% → 57%+17 pts
- P29:34Claude Giroux Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolas Matinpalo (1)FLA 1 – 2 OTT · OTT 56% → 74% +19OTT 56% → 74%+19 pts
- P217:18Shane Pinto Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (2)FLA 1 – 3 OTT · OTT 76% → 91% +14OTT 76% → 91%+14 pts
- P37:58Warren Foegele Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (3), Drake Batherson (3)FLA 1 – 4 OTT · OTT 96% → >99% +4OTT 96% → >99%+4 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Senators 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 58%
- Fair odds
- OTT -138
- FLA +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.9 – 3.3 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +9 | FLA: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −3 | −3 | Key absences: Thomas Chabot, Brad Marchand |
| Elo ratings | OTT +56 Elo | OTT 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 58.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.724th of 32 |
| 10th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.67th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.6 | Margin | +0.115th of 32 |
| 5th of 3254.9% | Shot share | 46.8%27th of 32 |
| 20th of 3288.8% | Save percentage | 91.0%5th of 32 |
| 10th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 3–15th of 32 |
| 26th of 321491 | Opponent Elo | 148728th of 32 |
| 14th of 321512 | Elo rating | 15259th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| Last 10 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–5 | 2–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5 | 2–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 8–3 OTT in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.