New York Islanders at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Matthew SchaeferGoals1
- Bo HorvatAssists2
- Bo HorvatPoints2
Stars- Jason RobertsonGoals2
- Roope HintzAssists2
- Jason RobertsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:02Mikko Rantanen Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Lian Bichsel (1)3–6
- P39:45Jason Robertson Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Seguin (3), Roope Hintz (5)3–5
- P34:10Wyatt Johnston Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nils Lundkvist (3), Joel Kiviranta (1)3–4
- P217:45Brayden Schenn Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Duclair (2), Emil Heineman (3)3–3
- P210:52Justin Hryckowian Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Thomas Harley (5), Wyatt Johnston (6)2–3
- P24:01Kyle Palmieri Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Ryan Pulock (1), Bo Horvat (7)2–2
- P114:32Jason Robertson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–2
- P113:43Matthew Schaefer Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (6)1–1
- P111:31Tyler Seguin Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (2), Roope Hintz (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:32Jason Robertson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNYI 1 – 2 DAL · DAL 62% → 77% +15DAL 62% → 77%+15 pts
- P24:01Kyle Palmieri Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Ryan Pulock (1), Bo Horvat (7)NYI 2 – 2 DAL · NYI 23% → 39% +16NYI 23% → 39%+16 pts
- P210:52Justin Hryckowian Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Thomas Harley (5), Wyatt Johnston (6)NYI 2 – 3 DAL · DAL 60% → 78% +18DAL 60% → 78%+18 pts
- P217:45Brayden Schenn Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Duclair (2), Emil Heineman (3)NYI 3 – 3 DAL · NYI 21% → 42% +21NYI 21% → 42%+21 pts
- P34:10Wyatt Johnston Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nils Lundkvist (3), Joel Kiviranta (1)NYI 3 – 4 DAL · DAL 57% → 81% +24DAL 57% → 81%+24 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Stars 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 64%
- ML NYI +164 / DAL -198
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- DAL: Elo 63.3%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- DAL -175
- NYI +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.4 – 3.1 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +4 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −3 | — | Key absences: Matias Maccelli |
| Elo ratings | DAL +94 Elo | DAL 63.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 66.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 65.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.625th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 1.71st of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.6 | Margin | +0.95th of 32 |
| 12th of 3251.1% | Shot share | 54.8%6th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3292.5% | Save percentage | 93.6%1st of 32 |
| 22nd of 321–3 | Road vs home | 3–214th of 32 |
| 29th of 321480 | Opponent Elo | 150116th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321485 | Elo rating | 15434th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 3–7 | 0–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 0–10 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 4–2 DAL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.