Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Kyle ConnorGoals1
- Dylan SambergAssists1
- Kyle ConnorPoints1
Stars- Roope HintzGoals2
- Jason RobertsonAssists2
- Roope HintzPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:47Roope Hintz Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (5), Jason Robertson (8)2–3
- P318:00Roope Hintz Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (8), Wyatt Johnston (5)2–2
- P212:38Kyle Connor Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Neal Pionk (6)2–1
- P210:50Gabriel Vilardi Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Samberg (3), Alex Iafallo (2)1–1
- P21:17Wyatt Johnston Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (7), Jason Robertson (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:17Wyatt Johnston Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (7), Jason Robertson (7)WPG 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 62% → 77% +16DAL 62% → 77%+16 pts
- P210:50Gabriel Vilardi Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Samberg (3), Alex Iafallo (2)WPG 1 – 1 DAL · WPG 22% → 40% +18WPG 22% → 40%+18 pts
- P212:38Kyle Connor Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Neal Pionk (6)WPG 2 – 1 DAL · WPG 40% → 61% +21WPG 40% → 61%+21 pts
- P318:00Roope Hintz Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (8), Wyatt Johnston (5)WPG 2 – 2 DAL · DAL 3% → 53% +50DAL 3% → 53%+50 pts
- OT3:47Roope Hintz Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (5), Jason Robertson (8)WPG 2 – 3 DAL · DAL 52% → >99% +47DAL 52% → >99%+47 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Stars 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 64%
- ML WPG +170 / DAL -205
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- DAL: Elo 63.7%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- DAL -181
- WPG +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.3 – 3.2 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +3 | WPG: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +98 Elo | DAL 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 64.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 64.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.625th of 32 |
| 10th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 1.71st of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.97th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.4% | Shot share | 53.3%8th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 94.0%1st of 32 |
| 10th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 2–217th of 32 |
| 8th of 321509 | Opponent Elo | 150314th of 32 |
| 19th of 321488 | Elo rating | 15414th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–4 | 4–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–4 | 4–5 |
| Favorite | 0–4 | 3–5 |
| Underdog | 5–0 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 3–6 | 0–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6 | 0–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 6–12 DAL in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 18.
- Apr 2WPG 0 @ DAL 3Picked DAL 58%Hit
- Feb 2WPG 3 @ DAL 4Picked DAL 57%Hit
- Dec 9DAL 4 @ WPG 3Picked DAL 57%Hit
- Oct 9DAL 5 @ WPG 4Picked WPG 50%Miss
- May 17WPG 1 @ DAL 2PlayoffsPicked DAL 58%Hit
- May 15DAL 0 @ WPG 4PlayoffsPicked WPG 55%Hit
- May 13WPG 1 @ DAL 3PlayoffsPicked DAL 58%Hit
- May 11WPG 2 @ DAL 5PlayoffsPicked DAL 56%Hit