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Winnipeg Jets at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, Blues App, BN+

Away

Jets

4-3-2

1–2

at

Home

Blues

4-4-1

WPG 43%STL 57%

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Enterprise Center · ESPN+, Blues App, BN+

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.

STL favored WPG favored3 scoring plays
P1P2P3STL50%WPG

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Scoring summary

  • P38:47Philip Broberg Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (4), Jake Neighbours (2)1–2
  • P30:32Cole Perfetti Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (4)1–1
  • P112:30Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Dylan Holloway (6), Philip Broberg (4)0–1

Turning points

The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P112:30Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Dylan Holloway (6), Philip Broberg (4)WPG 0 – 1 STL · STL 56% → 72% +15
  2. P30:32Cole Perfetti Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (4)WPG 1 – 1 STL · WPG 23% → 46% +23
  3. P38:47Philip Broberg Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (4), Jake Neighbours (2)WPG 1 – 2 STL · STL 53% → 82% +29

The pick

Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.

Blues 57%

LeanHit
WPG 43%STL 57%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
STL 57%
ML WPG +124 / STL -148
Pre-line forecast
STL 58%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
STL 58%
Ratings vs. market
+0.7 pts
STL: Elo 57.9%, market 57.2%
Fair odds
STL -134
WPG +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
WPG 2.5 – 3.0 STL
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorWPGSTLWhy
Team rating14901501Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies−8+5WPG: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts)
Injuries—−3Key absences: Dillon Dube
Elo ratingsSTL +56 EloSTL 57.9%
Market-implied ratingsSTL 57.9%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastSTL 57.9%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastSTL 57.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Winnipeg Jets and St. Louis Blues compared, with each team's league rank
WPGStatSTL
22nd of 322.9Goals scored3.49th of 32
11th of 323.0Goals allowed3.523rd of 32
18th of 32−0.1Margin−0.118th of 32
24th of 3247.7%Shot share49.4%19th of 32
10th of 3290.1%Save percentage87.7%23rd of 32
5th of 322–1Road vs home1–116th of 32
8th of 321510Opponent Elo150017th of 32
18th of 321490Elo rating150115th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

JetsBlues
14001450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonWPGSTL
Puck line4–44–4
Last 104–44–4
Favorite0–42–3
Underdog4–02–1
Overs–unders3–56–2
Overs–unders, last 103–56–2

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

WPG 13–5 STL in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 18.