Los Angeles Kings at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Artemi PanarinGoals2
- Brandt ClarkeAssists1
- Artemi PanarinPoints2
Islanders- Victor EklundGoals1
- Emil HeinemanAssists1
- Matthew SchaeferPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT2:43Brandt Clarke Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (4), Darcy Kuemper (1)3–2
- P37:06Matthew Schaefer Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Stanley (5), Brayden Schenn (5)2–2
- P214:06Victor Eklund Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Tony DeAngelo (2), Emil Heineman (2)2–1
- P116:37Artemi Panarin Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: none2–0
- P15:51Artemi Panarin Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (5), Brandt Clarke (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:51Artemi Panarin Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (5), Brandt Clarke (5)LA 1 – 0 NYI · LA 51% → 66% +15LA 51% → 66%+15 pts
- P116:37Artemi Panarin Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: noneLA 2 – 0 NYI · LA 67% → 81% +14LA 67% → 81%+14 pts
- P214:06Victor Eklund Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Tony DeAngelo (2), Emil Heineman (2)LA 2 – 1 NYI · NYI 13% → 28% +15NYI 13% → 28%+15 pts
- P37:06Matthew Schaefer Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Stanley (5), Brayden Schenn (5)LA 2 – 2 NYI · NYI 21% → 49% +28NYI 21% → 49%+28 pts
- OT2:43Brandt Clarke Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (4), Darcy Kuemper (1)LA 3 – 2 NYI · LA 50% → 97% +47LA 50% → 97%+47 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Kings 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- LA 51%
- ML LA -115 / NYI -105
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- LA: Elo 43.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- LA -104
- NYI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.8 – 2.7 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −9 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · NYI: Semyon Varlamov: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | — | −3 | Key absences: Matias Maccelli |
| Elo ratings | NYI +45 Elo | NYI 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 53.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.4 | Goals scored | 3.017th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.9 | Goals allowed | 2.23rd of 32 |
| 29th of 32−1.4 | Margin | +0.88th of 32 |
| 12th of 3251.6% | Shot share | 49.6%17th of 32 |
| 27th of 3287.4% | Save percentage | 92.9%3rd of 32 |
| 21st of 321–3 | Road vs home | 4–14th of 32 |
| 5th of 321520 | Opponent Elo | 148129th of 32 |
| 28th of 321467 | Elo rating | 148820th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–3 | 5–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–3 | 5–4 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 3–4 | 3–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–4 | 3–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 5–1 NYI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.