Los Angeles Kings at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Adrian KempeGoals2
- Artemi PanarinAssists2
- Artemi PanarinPoints3
Capitals- Ryan LeonardGoals1
- Jonny BrodzinskiAssists1
- Ryan LeonardPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:15Scott Laughton Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Joel Armia (1), Erik Haula (3)5–2
- P311:35Adrian Kempe Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (3), Alex Laferriere (4)4–2
- P37:28Erik Gustafsson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none3–2
- P119:58Artemi Panarin Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: none2–2
- P119:27Adrian Kempe Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (2), Alex Laferriere (3)1–2
- P118:35Cole Hutson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (4), Jakob Chychrun (4)0–2
- P19:25Ryan Leonard Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jonny Brodzinski (1), Anthony Beauvillier (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:25Ryan Leonard Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jonny Brodzinski (1), Anthony Beauvillier (1)LA 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 59% → 74% +14WSH 59% → 74%+14 pts
- P119:27Adrian Kempe Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (2), Alex Laferriere (3)LA 1 – 2 WSH · LA 14% → 26% +12LA 14% → 26%+12 pts
- P119:58Artemi Panarin Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: noneLA 2 – 2 WSH · LA 26% → 42% +16LA 26% → 42%+16 pts
- P37:28Erik Gustafsson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: noneLA 3 – 2 WSH · LA 45% → 75% +30LA 45% → 75%+30 pts
- P311:35Adrian Kempe Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (3), Alex Laferriere (4)LA 4 – 2 WSH · LA 81% → 97% +16LA 81% → 97%+16 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Capitals 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 60%
- ML LA +140 / WSH -166
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- WSH: Elo 64.5%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- WSH -150
- LA +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.5 – 3.0 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +5 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | — | −3 | Key absences: Justin Sourdif |
| Elo ratings | WSH +103 Elo | WSH 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 64.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 64.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.0 | Goals scored | 3.58th of 32 |
| 30th of 324.2 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−2.2 | Margin | +0.512th of 32 |
| 12th of 3252.8% | Shot share | 46.9%26th of 32 |
| 31st of 3286.1% | Save percentage | 90.6%8th of 32 |
| 28th of 320–3 | Road vs home | 4–15th of 32 |
| 4th of 321521 | Opponent Elo | 15252nd of 32 |
| 28th of 321461 | Elo rating | 15289th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–3 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–3 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 2–4 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–4 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 1–5 WSH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.