New York Islanders at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
MIN went from 66% to 63% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Wednesday, October 28 at 2:03 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Matthew SchaeferGoals2
- Matthew SchaeferAssists1
- Matthew SchaeferPoints3
Wild- Quinn HughesGoals1
- Quinn HughesAssists1
- Quinn HughesPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:33Matthew Schaefer Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (6)4–3
- P316:07Matt Boldy Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–3
- P37:14Adam Pelech Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–2
- P217:21Quinn Hughes Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Ryan Hartman (3), Jonas Brodin (4)2–2
- P21:41Bo Horvat Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Simon Holmstrom (3), Matthew Schaefer (10)2–1
- P116:36Matthew Schaefer Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Emil Heineman (4), Victor Eklund (2)1–1
- P10:27Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (10), Quinn Hughes (16)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:41Bo Horvat Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Simon Holmstrom (3), Matthew Schaefer (10)NYI 2 – 1 MIN · NYI 39% → 58% +18NYI 39% → 58%+18 pts
- P217:21Quinn Hughes Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Ryan Hartman (3), Jonas Brodin (4)NYI 2 – 2 MIN · MIN 35% → 58% +23MIN 35% → 58%+23 pts
- P37:14Adam Pelech Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNYI 3 – 2 MIN · NYI 44% → 74% +30NYI 44% → 74%+30 pts
- P316:07Matt Boldy Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNYI 3 – 3 MIN · MIN 9% → 53% +45MIN 9% → 53%+45 pts
- OT0:33Matthew Schaefer Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (6)NYI 4 – 3 MIN · NYI 46% → 89% +43NYI 46% → 89%+43 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Wild 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 63%
- ML NYI +160 / MIN -192
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- MIN: Elo 64.1%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -171
- NYI +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.4 – 3.1 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +7 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −3 | — | Key absences: Matias Maccelli |
| Elo ratings | MIN +101 Elo | MIN 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 66.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 66.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.114th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.23rd of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.94th of 32 |
| 15th of 3249.8% | Shot share | 55.5%4th of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 91.2%3rd of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 18th of 322–4 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 32 |
| 28th of 321483 | Opponent Elo | 149819th of 32 |
| 20th of 321484 | Elo rating | 15444th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–5 | 9–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 4–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–7 | 4–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 2–4 MIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.