Minnesota Wild at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTA; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
UTA went from 56% to 54% over 4 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, October 26 at 3:19 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals1
- Quinn HughesAssists2
- Kirill KaprizovPoints2
Mammoth- Logan CooleyGoals1
- Nick SchmaltzAssists1
- Logan CooleyPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:39Logan Cooley Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (7), Mikhail Sergachev (12)3–1
- P311:44Maxim Shabanov Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: none3–0
- P30:48Kirill Kaprizov Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (7), Quinn Hughes (15)2–0
- P215:04Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (14), Kirill Kaprizov (9)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P215:04Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (14), Kirill Kaprizov (9)MIN 1 – 0 UTA · MIN 47% → 69% +22MIN 47% → 69%+22 pts
- P30:48Kirill Kaprizov Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (7), Quinn Hughes (15)MIN 2 – 0 UTA · MIN 72% → 89% +17MIN 72% → 89%+17 pts
- P311:44Maxim Shabanov Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: noneMIN 3 – 0 UTA · MIN 97% → >99% +3MIN 97% → >99%+3 pts
- P318:39Logan Cooley Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (7), Mikhail Sergachev (12)MIN 3 – 1 UTA · UTA <1% → <1% +0UTA <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Mammoth 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 54%
- ML MIN +110 / UTA -130
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- UTA: Elo 49.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- UTA -119
- MIN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.1 – 3.4 UTA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | UTA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −3 | MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | — | −3 | Key absences: John Marino |
| Elo ratings | MIN +1 Elo | MIN 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 52.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.83rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 3.321st of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.8 | Margin | +0.59th of 32 |
| 4th of 3255.7% | Shot share | 56.4%3rd of 32 |
| 4th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 86.4%32nd of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 15th of 324–5 | Road vs home | 4–15th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 32 |
| 4th of 321540 | Elo rating | 151513th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–5 | 5–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–9 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–5 UTA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.
