Utah Mammoth at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- Logan CooleyGoals2
- Mikhail SergachevAssists2
- Logan CooleyPoints2
Kraken- Brandon MontourGoals1
- Brandon MontourAssists1
- Jordan EberlePoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:00Freddy Gaudreau Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–5
- P314:35Mackie Samoskevich Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby McMann (2), Brandon Montour (6)3–4
- P37:42Logan Cooley Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (10), MacKenzie Weegar (1)3–3
- P30:27Logan Cooley Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (9), Clayton Keller (10)2–3
- P22:23Brandon Montour Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (5), Vince Dunn (6)1–3
- P118:23Matty Beniers Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Kaapo Kakko (7), Berkly Catton (6)1–2
- P117:57Vincent Trocheck Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Kailer Yamamoto (4)1–1
- P13:38Jordan Eberle Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Ryker Evans (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:57Vincent Trocheck Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Kailer Yamamoto (4)UTA 1 – 1 SEA · UTA 41% → 59% +17UTA 41% → 59%+17 pts
- P118:23Matty Beniers Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Kaapo Kakko (7), Berkly Catton (6)UTA 1 – 2 SEA · SEA 41% → 59% +17SEA 41% → 59%+17 pts
- P30:27Logan Cooley Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (9), Clayton Keller (10)UTA 2 – 3 SEA · UTA 13% → 31% +18UTA 13% → 31%+18 pts
- P37:42Logan Cooley Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (10), MacKenzie Weegar (1)UTA 3 – 3 SEA · UTA 25% → 55% +30UTA 25% → 55%+30 pts
- P314:35Mackie Samoskevich Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby McMann (2), Brandon Montour (6)UTA 3 – 4 SEA · SEA 47% → 87% +40SEA 47% → 87%+40 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Mammoth 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 60%
- ML UTA -170 / SEA +142
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.0 pts
- UTA: Elo 51.4%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- UTA -152
- SEA +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 3.5 – 3.0 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −3 | UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −1 | — | Key absences: John Marino |
| Elo ratings | UTA +10 Elo | UTA 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 56.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 60.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.8 | Goals scored | 3.94th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.424th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.7 | Margin | +0.511th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3257.2% | Shot share | 46.1%28th of 32 |
| 29th of 3286.6% | Save percentage | 89.3%17th of 32 |
| 3rd of 324–2 | Road vs home | 2–110th of 32 |
| 18th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 149819th of 32 |
| 13th of 321517 | Elo rating | 147425th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTA |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 4–2 SEA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.
