Minnesota Wild at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Blake ColemanGoals2
- Joel Eriksson EkAssists1
- Blake ColemanPoints2
Kraken- Berkly CattonGoals1
- Brandon MontourAssists1
- Berkly CattonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:24Blake Coleman Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–1
- P213:00Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (5), Kirill Kaprizov (7)4–1
- P211:33Olli Maatta Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (2)3–1
- P22:11Blake Coleman Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Kiersted (1)2–1
- P110:13Berkly Catton Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (8), Brandon Montour (7)1–1
- P10:26Kirill Kaprizov Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (6), Quinn Hughes (12)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:26Kirill Kaprizov Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (6), Quinn Hughes (12)MIN 1 – 0 SEA · MIN 61% → 74% +13MIN 61% → 74%+13 pts
- P110:13Berkly Catton Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (8), Brandon Montour (7)MIN 1 – 1 SEA · SEA 26% → 40% +14SEA 26% → 40%+14 pts
- P22:11Blake Coleman Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Kiersted (1)MIN 2 – 1 SEA · MIN 59% → 75% +16MIN 59% → 75%+16 pts
- P211:33Olli Maatta Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (2)MIN 3 – 1 SEA · MIN 76% → 89% +13MIN 76% → 89%+13 pts
- P213:00Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (5), Kirill Kaprizov (7)MIN 4 – 1 SEA · MIN 90% → 97% +7MIN 90% → 97%+7 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Wild 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 61%
- ML MIN -175 / SEA +145
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- MIN: Elo 54.1%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- MIN -156
- SEA +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.6 – 2.9 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −3 | MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | — | −3 | Key absences: Jared McCann |
| Elo ratings | MIN +28 Elo | MIN 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 56.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 4.03rd of 32 |
| 4th of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.423rd of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.5 | Margin | +0.68th of 32 |
| 6th of 3254.4% | Shot share | 45.6%28th of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 89.6%13th of 32 |
| 13th of 295–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 29 |
| 22nd of 322–5 | Road vs home | 3–17th of 32 |
| 12th of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 149921st of 32 |
| 6th of 321532 | Elo rating | 147725th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–5 | 7–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–7 | 9–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 7–2 SEA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.