Minnesota Wild at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals1
- Kirill KaprizovAssists1
- Kirill KaprizovPoints2
Canucks- Max SassonGoals1
- Filip HronekAssists1
- Brock BoeserPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:53Brock Boeser Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (9), Jake DeBrusk (5)4–2
- P36:24Max Sasson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (8), Elias Pettersson (1)4–1
- P33:38Kirill Kaprizov Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Quinn Hughes (13)4–0
- P212:55Quinn Hughes Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (7), Maxim Shabanov (5)3–0
- P25:54Bobby Brink Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Michael McCarron (5)2–0
- P118:33Maxim Shabanov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (8), Matt Boldy (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:33Maxim Shabanov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (8), Matt Boldy (6)MIN 1 – 0 VAN · MIN 60% → 75% +16MIN 60% → 75%+16 pts
- P25:54Bobby Brink Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Michael McCarron (5)MIN 2 – 0 VAN · MIN 76% → 88% +12MIN 76% → 88%+12 pts
- P212:55Quinn Hughes Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (7), Maxim Shabanov (5)MIN 3 – 0 VAN · MIN 90% → 97% +7MIN 90% → 97%+7 pts
- P33:38Kirill Kaprizov Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Quinn Hughes (13)MIN 4 – 0 VAN · MIN 99% → >99% +1MIN 99% → >99%+1 pts
- P36:24Max Sasson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (8), Elias Pettersson (1)MIN 4 – 1 VAN · VAN <1% → <1% +1VAN <1% → <1%+1 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Wild 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 62%
- ML MIN -180 / VAN +150
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 55.8%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- MIN -161
- VAN +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.6 – 2.9 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1407 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −10 | +10 | MIN: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · VAN: Leevi Merilainen: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +41 Elo | MIN 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 58.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.919th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 4.732nd of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.8 | Margin | −1.832nd of 32 |
| 6th of 3254.9% | Shot share | 37.5%32nd of 32 |
| 4th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 86.3%32nd of 32 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 15th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 1–431st of 32 |
| 14th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 15193rd of 32 |
| 5th of 321537 | Elo rating | 140732nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–5 | 5–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 4–7 |
| Overs–unders | 4–8 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 6–3 VAN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.