Los Angeles Kings at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
NYR went from 57% to 55% over 2 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, October 26 at 3:19 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Drew DoughtyGoals1
- Drew DoughtyAssists2
- Drew DoughtyPoints3
Rangers- Tye KartyeGoals1
- Tye KartyeAssists1
- Tye KartyePoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:37Joel Edmundson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Drew Doughty (3), Alex Laferriere (7)6–3
- P316:08Tye Kartye Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Durzi (3)5–3
- P213:05Adam Fox Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (5), Alexis Lafrenière (7)5–2
- P26:54Mikey Anderson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Corey Perry (1)5–1
- P21:30Artemi Panarin Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Gustafsson (2), Alex Laferriere (6)4–1
- P117:32Drew Doughty Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Joel Edmundson (1), Artemi Panarin (4)3–1
- P113:01J.T. Miller Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Tye Kartye (6)2–1
- P14:52Brandt Clarke Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Scott Laughton (2), Joel Armia (2)2–0
- P11:15Taylor Ward Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Drew Doughty (2), Trevor Moore (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:15Taylor Ward Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Drew Doughty (2), Trevor Moore (2)LA 1 – 0 NYR · LA 45% → 60% +15LA 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P14:52Brandt Clarke Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Scott Laughton (2), Joel Armia (2)LA 2 – 0 NYR · LA 60% → 74% +14LA 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P113:01J.T. Miller Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Tye Kartye (6)LA 2 – 1 NYR · NYR 24% → 38% +14NYR 24% → 38%+14 pts
- P117:32Drew Doughty Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Joel Edmundson (1), Artemi Panarin (4)LA 3 – 1 NYR · LA 63% → 78% +15LA 63% → 78%+15 pts
- P21:30Artemi Panarin Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Gustafsson (2), Alex Laferriere (6)LA 4 – 1 NYR · LA 79% → 90% +11LA 79% → 90%+11 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 55%
- ML LA +114 / NYR -135
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- NYR: Elo 56.8%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- NYR -123
- LA +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.6 – 2.9 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −14 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · NYR: James Reimer: team allows 0.35 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +47 Elo | NYR 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.3 | Goals scored | 3.216th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 2.86th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−1.2 | Margin | +0.410th of 32 |
| 21st of 3248.4% | Shot share | 48.3%23rd of 32 |
| 15th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 90.5%6th of 32 |
| 16th of 322–4 | Road vs home | 6–01st of 32 |
| 7th of 321512 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 32 |
| 28th of 321467 | Elo rating | 149118th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–5 | 8–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 4–1 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 3–6 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 5–1 NYR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.