New York Rangers at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- J.T. MillerGoals1
- Adam FoxAssists2
- J.T. MillerPoints2
Senators- Drake BathersonGoals3
- Jake SandersonAssists2
- Drake BathersonPoints4
Scoring summary
- P319:48Drake Batherson Goal (7) Deflected, assists: none4–7
- P318:47Michael Amadio Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (4), Jonas Johansson (1)4–6
- P315:32Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (4), Noah Laba (4)4–5
- P313:38Jake Sanderson Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Ridly Greig (2), Michael Amadio (3)3–5
- P219:34Alexis Lafrenière Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (6)3–4
- P212:54J.T. Miller Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fox (16), Oliver Bjorkstrand (2)2–4
- P211:21Dylan Cozens Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Drake Batherson (5), Carter Yakemchuk (2)1–4
- P210:07Will Cuylle Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Laba (3), Adam Fox (15)1–3
- P21:47Drake Batherson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (4), Jordan Spence (2)0–3
- P16:40Tim Stützle Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (4), Claude Giroux (6)0–2
- P15:34Drake Batherson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (3), Artem Zub (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:34Drake Batherson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (3), Artem Zub (2)NYR 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 53% → 68% +15OTT 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P16:40Tim Stützle Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (4), Claude Giroux (6)NYR 0 – 2 OTT · OTT 68% → 80% +12OTT 68% → 80%+12 pts
- P21:47Drake Batherson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (4), Jordan Spence (2)NYR 0 – 3 OTT · OTT 84% → 92% +9OTT 84% → 92%+9 pts
- P219:34Alexis Lafrenière Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (6)NYR 3 – 4 OTT · NYR 10% → 25% +15NYR 10% → 25%+15 pts
- P313:38Jake Sanderson Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Ridly Greig (2), Michael Amadio (3)NYR 3 – 5 OTT · OTT 87% → 99% +11OTT 87% → 99%+11 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Senators 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 53%
- ML NYR +105 / OTT -125
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- OTT: Elo 55.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- OTT -114
- NYR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.2 – 3.3 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −24 | NYR: Dylan Garand: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · OTT: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.61 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +36 Elo | OTT 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 56.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.821st of 32 |
| 4th of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.7 | Margin | +0.117th of 32 |
| 24th of 3247.7% | Shot share | 49.8%15th of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.5% | Save percentage | 90.7%5th of 32 |
| 6th of 276–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 27 |
| 27th of 321–5 | Road vs home | 4–211th of 32 |
| 20th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 148727th of 32 |
| 18th of 321495 | Elo rating | 152211th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–4 | 3–7 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–1 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–5 | 3–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 5–4 OTT in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.