San Jose Sharks at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Jacob TroubaGoals1
- Kiefer SherwoodAssists2
- Jacob TroubaPoints2
Senators- Jordan SpenceGoals1
- Warren FoegeleAssists1
- Jordan SpencePoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:43Ivar Stenberg Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (4), Michael Misa (4)6–2
- P316:31Zack Ostapchuk Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Barclay Goodrow (1)5–2
- P36:24Jordan Spence Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (3), Nikolas Matinpalo (2)4–2
- P213:18Jacob Trouba Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Collin Graf (1), Darnell Nurse (1)4–1
- P212:00Collin Graf Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ty Dellandrea (1), Sam Dickinson (2)3–1
- P29:13Tyler Toffoli Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (3), Jacob Trouba (4)2–1
- P111:04Nolan Allan Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (3)1–1
- P16:16Tim Stützle Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (4), Warren Foegele (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:16Tim Stützle Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (4), Warren Foegele (3)SJ 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 55% → 69% +15OTT 55% → 69%+15 pts
- P111:04Nolan Allan Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (3)SJ 1 – 1 OTT · SJ 30% → 45% +15SJ 30% → 45%+15 pts
- P29:13Tyler Toffoli Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (3), Jacob Trouba (4)SJ 2 – 1 OTT · SJ 46% → 66% +20SJ 46% → 66%+20 pts
- P212:00Collin Graf Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ty Dellandrea (1), Sam Dickinson (2)SJ 3 – 1 OTT · SJ 67% → 84% +16SJ 67% → 84%+16 pts
- P213:18Jacob Trouba Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Collin Graf (1), Darnell Nurse (1)SJ 4 – 1 OTT · SJ 84% → 94% +10SJ 84% → 94%+10 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Senators 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 55%
- ML SJ +114 / OTT -135
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.8 pts
- OTT: Elo 60.9%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- OTT -123
- SJ +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 3.1 – 3.4 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1447 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | OTT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −15 | −22 | SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.39 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · OTT: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.55 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | — | −3 | Key absences: Thomas Chabot |
| Elo ratings | OTT +77 Elo | OTT 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 56.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.920th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 2.45th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.8 | Margin | +0.512th of 32 |
| 16th of 3249.6% | Shot share | 48.3%23rd of 32 |
| 20th of 3288.7% | Save percentage | 91.3%5th of 32 |
| 10th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 4–14th of 32 |
| 13th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 149027th of 32 |
| 29th of 321447 | Elo rating | 15298th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–5 | 3–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–6 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 5–4 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–5 | 2–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 1–5 OTT in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.