San Jose Sharks at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Macklin CelebriniGoals2
- Macklin CelebriniAssists1
- Macklin CelebriniPoints3
Canadiens- Nick SuzukiGoals1
- Nick SuzukiAssists1
- Nick SuzukiPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:13Macklin Celebrini Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Ivar Stenberg (5), Will Smith (4)4–3
- P311:09Tyler Toffoli Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (9), Jacob Trouba (3)3–3
- P35:36Michael Misa Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (2)2–3
- P214:03Cole Caufield Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (7), Phillip Danault (2)1–3
- P21:49Juraj Slafkovský Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (2)1–2
- P116:38Nick Suzuki Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (5), Lane Hutson (7)1–1
- P113:49Macklin Celebrini Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:49Macklin Celebrini Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: noneSJ 1 – 0 MTL · SJ 37% → 54% +16SJ 37% → 54%+16 pts
- P116:38Nick Suzuki Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (5), Lane Hutson (7)SJ 1 – 1 MTL · MTL 45% → 62% +17MTL 45% → 62%+17 pts
- P21:49Juraj Slafkovský Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (2)SJ 1 – 2 MTL · MTL 62% → 77% +16MTL 62% → 77%+16 pts
- P311:09Tyler Toffoli Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (9), Jacob Trouba (3)SJ 3 – 3 MTL · SJ 14% → 44% +31SJ 14% → 44%+31 pts
- OT2:13Macklin Celebrini Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Ivar Stenberg (5), Will Smith (4)SJ 4 – 3 MTL · SJ 47% → 95% +48SJ 47% → 95%+48 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Canadiens 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 64%
- ML SJ +170 / MTL -205
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- MTL: Elo 67.6%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- MTL -181
- SJ +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.8 – 3.7 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1444 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | SJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +17 | +5 | SJ: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.42 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · MTL: Jacob Fowler: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | — | −1 | Key absences: Mike Matheson |
| Elo ratings | MTL +128 Elo | MTL 67.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 67.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 67.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.826th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−1.0 | Margin | −0.422nd of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.0% | Shot share | 53.0%11th of 32 |
| 21st of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 86.8%27th of 32 |
| 13th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 3–212th of 32 |
| 20th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 15128th of 32 |
| 30th of 321444 | Elo rating | 152212th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–5 | 2–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–5 | 2–6 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 0–5 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–5 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5 | 6–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 3–3 MTL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.