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Buffalo Sabres at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast

Final/OTNHL Net, MSGB

Away

Sabres

4-3-2

3–4

at

Home

Canadiens

4-3-1

BUF 44%MTL 56%

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Bell Centre · NHL Net, MSGB

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.

MTL favored BUF favored7 scoring plays
P1P2P3OTMTL50%BUF

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Canadiens

Scoring summary

  • OT0:54Cole Caufield Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: none3–4
  • P310:12Tage Thompson Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Doan (1), Jiri Kulich (2)3–3
  • P29:52Jack Quinn Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Benson (6), Mattias Samuelsson (5)2–3
  • P27:39Alexandre Texier Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Kaiden Guhle (1), Alexandre Carrier (3)1–3
  • P114:01Cole Caufield Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (4), Alexandre Carrier (2)1–2
  • P111:45Zachary Bolduc Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Nick Suzuki (6), Juraj Slafkovský (3)1–1
  • P18:21Josh Norris Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Konsta Helenius (1)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P18:21Josh Norris Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Konsta Helenius (1)BUF 1 – 0 MTL · BUF 44% → 60% +16
  2. P111:45Zachary Bolduc Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Nick Suzuki (6), Juraj Slafkovský (3)BUF 1 – 1 MTL · MTL 40% → 56% +16
  3. P114:01Cole Caufield Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (4), Alexandre Carrier (2)BUF 1 – 2 MTL · MTL 56% → 71% +16
  4. P310:12Tage Thompson Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Doan (1), Jiri Kulich (2)BUF 3 – 3 MTL · BUF 17% → 47% +31
  5. OT0:54Cole Caufield Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: noneBUF 3 – 4 MTL · MTL 52% → 92% +41

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Canadiens 56%

LeanHit
BUF 44%MTL 56%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
MTL 56%
ML BUF +120 / MTL -142
Pre-line forecast
MTL 54%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
MTL 54%
Ratings vs. market
−1.9 pts
MTL: Elo 54.5%, market 56.3%
Fair odds
MTL -129
BUF +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
BUF 3.1 – 3.4 MTL
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorBUFMTLWhy
Team rating15321520Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies−3+5BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · MTL: Jacob Fowler: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsMTL +31 EloMTL 54.5%
Market-implied ratingsMTL 53.4%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastMTL 53.6%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastMTL 56.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

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Buffalo Sabres and Montreal Canadiens compared, with each team's league rank
BUFStatMTL
20th of 323.0Goals scored3.313th of 32
26th of 323.8Goals allowed3.927th of 32
25th of 32−0.8Margin−0.623rd of 32
11th of 3252.2%Shot share52.4%10th of 32
29th of 3285.7%Save percentage86.5%27th of 32
16th of 321–2Road vs home2–216th of 32
17th of 321502Opponent Elo151012th of 32
7th of 321532Elo rating152012th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

SabresCanadiens
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonBUFMTL
Puck line4–42–5
Last 104–42–5
Favorite1–20–4
Underdog3–22–1
Overs–unders5–35–2
Overs–unders, last 105–35–2

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

BUF 7–13 MTL in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 20.