Los Angeles Kings at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Scott LaughtonGoals1
- Andre LeeAssists1
- Scott LaughtonPoints1
Devils- Arseny GritsyukGoals1
- Arseny GritsyukAssists1
- Arseny GritsyukPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:55Arseny Gritsyuk Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (9), Jesper Bratt (8)1–3
- P38:08Brett Pesce Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (4), Arseny Gritsyuk (3)1–2
- P218:43Anthony Mantha Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Boqvist (2), Evan Rodrigues (3)1–1
- P215:57Scott Laughton Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (5), Andre Lee (1)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P215:57Scott Laughton Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (5), Andre Lee (1)LA 1 – 0 NJ · LA 44% → 66% +23LA 44% → 66%+23 pts
- P218:43Anthony Mantha Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Boqvist (2), Evan Rodrigues (3)LA 1 – 1 NJ · NJ 32% → 56% +24NJ 32% → 56%+24 pts
- P38:08Brett Pesce Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (4), Arseny Gritsyuk (3)LA 1 – 2 NJ · NJ 54% → 82% +28NJ 54% → 82%+28 pts
- P318:55Arseny Gritsyuk Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (9), Jesper Bratt (8)LA 1 – 3 NJ · NJ >99% → >99% +0NJ >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Devils 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 60%
- ML LA +140 / NJ -166
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- NJ: Elo 58.6%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- NJ -150
- LA +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.5 – 3.0 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −1 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +60 Elo | NJ 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 59.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.314th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.114th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−1.1 | Margin | +0.215th of 32 |
| 16th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 58.3%2nd of 32 |
| 18th of 3288.8% | Save percentage | 88.0%25th of 32 |
| 13th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 5–29th of 32 |
| 5th of 321516 | Opponent Elo | 149424th of 32 |
| 28th of 321470 | Elo rating | 149418th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–4 | 4–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 3–5 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–5 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 3–3 NJ in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.