Anaheim Ducks at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Tim WasheGoals1
- Sam ColangeloAssists1
- Tim WashePoints1
Devils- Jack HughesGoals1
- Jesper BrattAssists2
- Jack HughesPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:53Jack Hughes Goal (3) Backhand, assists: none1–4
- P313:27Anthony Mantha Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Pesce (3)1–3
- P38:20Tim Washe Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Jackson LaCombe (7), Sam Colangelo (1)1–2
- P119:19Nico Hischier Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Luke Evangelista (3), Jesper Bratt (7)0–2
- P14:38Arseny Gritsyuk Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Jesper Bratt (6), Jack Hughes (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:38Arseny Gritsyuk Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Jesper Bratt (6), Jack Hughes (8)ANA 0 – 1 NJ · NJ 65% → 78% +13NJ 65% → 78%+13 pts
- P119:19Nico Hischier Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Luke Evangelista (3), Jesper Bratt (7)ANA 0 – 2 NJ · NJ 78% → 89% +11NJ 78% → 89%+11 pts
- P38:20Tim Washe Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Jackson LaCombe (7), Sam Colangelo (1)ANA 1 – 2 NJ · ANA 3% → 16% +12ANA 3% → 16%+12 pts
- P313:27Anthony Mantha Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Pesce (3)ANA 1 – 3 NJ · NJ 89% → >99% +10NJ 89% → >99%+10 pts
- P319:53Jack Hughes Goal (3) Backhand, assists: noneANA 1 – 4 NJ · NJ 100% → 100% +0NJ 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Devils 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 66%
- ML ANA +180 / NJ -218
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- NJ: Elo 59.0%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- NJ -192
- ANA +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.8 – 3.7 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +1 | ANA: Ville Husso: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · NJ: Nico Daws: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −3 | — | Key absences: Ryan Poehling |
| Elo ratings | NJ +63 Elo | NJ 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 58.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.213th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.322nd of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.118th of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.6% | Shot share | 57.8%2nd of 32 |
| 21st of 3288.2% | Save percentage | 87.6%24th of 32 |
| 6th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 4–29th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 32 |
| 26th of 321474 | Elo rating | 149018th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–4 | 3–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–4 | 3–6 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–6 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 4–2 NJ in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.