Anaheim Ducks at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Tristan LuneauGoals1
- Tristan LuneauAssists2
- Tristan LuneauPoints3
Flyers- Matvei MichkovGoals2
- Trevor ZegrasAssists2
- Matvei MichkovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P38:17Matvei Michkov Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Porter Martone (2), Noah Cates (2)5–4
- P37:10Beckett Sennecke Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Leo Carlsson (10), Jackson LaCombe (8)5–3
- P32:00Tristan Luneau Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Mitchell (1)4–3
- P216:19Judd Caulfield Goal (2) Batted, assists: Alex Killorn (3), Tristan Luneau (4)3–3
- P215:04Tyson Foerster Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Seeler (3)2–3
- P213:07A.J. Greer Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Tim Washe (3), Tristan Luneau (3)2–2
- P28:38Leo Carlsson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Cutter Gauthier (4)1–2
- P115:02Porter Martone Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Travis Sanheim (3), Trevor Zegras (7)0–2
- P113:59Matvei Michkov Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jamie Drysdale (2), Trevor Zegras (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P213:07A.J. Greer Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Tim Washe (3), Tristan Luneau (3)ANA 2 – 2 PHI · ANA 28% → 48% +20ANA 28% → 48%+20 pts
- P215:04Tyson Foerster Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Seeler (3)ANA 2 – 3 PHI · PHI 52% → 73% +21PHI 52% → 73%+21 pts
- P216:19Judd Caulfield Goal (2) Batted, assists: Alex Killorn (3), Tristan Luneau (4)ANA 3 – 3 PHI · ANA 27% → 48% +22ANA 27% → 48%+22 pts
- P32:00Tristan Luneau Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Mitchell (1)ANA 4 – 3 PHI · ANA 49% → 74% +25ANA 49% → 74%+25 pts
- P37:10Beckett Sennecke Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Leo Carlsson (10), Jackson LaCombe (8)ANA 5 – 3 PHI · ANA 78% → 94% +16ANA 78% → 94%+16 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Flyers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 53%
- ML ANA +102 / PHI -122
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- PHI: Elo 54.4%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- PHI -111
- ANA +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.7 – 2.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −12 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · PHI: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.30 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −3 | −3 | Key absences: Owen Tippett, Ryan Poehling |
| Elo ratings | PHI +31 Elo | PHI 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 50.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 1.732nd of 32 |
| 21st of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.112th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −1.429th of 32 |
| 27th of 3246.6% | Shot share | 40.7%31st of 32 |
| 21st of 3288.3% | Save percentage | 90.8%5th of 32 |
| 10th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 2–429th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 15291st of 32 |
| 27th of 321470 | Elo rating | 148222nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–5 | 6–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 3–7 | 2–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 1–5 PHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.