Philadelphia Flyers at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Cole KnubleGoals2
- Oliver BonkAssists2
- Cole KnublePoints2
Sabres- Jason ZuckerGoals1
- Jack QuinnAssists1
- Jason ZuckerPoints1
Scoring summary
- P33:03Cole Knuble Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Bonk (4)3–1
- P219:25Jason Zucker Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Jack Quinn (5), Noah Ostlund (5)2–1
- P119:17Trevor Zegras Goal (3) Batted, assists: Matvei Michkov (2), Jamie Drysdale (1)2–0
- P114:49Cole Knuble Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Oliver Bonk (3), Denver Barkey (4)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:49Cole Knuble Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Oliver Bonk (3), Denver Barkey (4)PHI 1 – 0 BUF · PHI 41% → 57% +17PHI 41% → 57%+17 pts
- P119:17Trevor Zegras Goal (3) Batted, assists: Matvei Michkov (2), Jamie Drysdale (1)PHI 2 – 0 BUF · PHI 59% → 75% +16PHI 59% → 75%+16 pts
- P219:25Jason Zucker Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Jack Quinn (5), Noah Ostlund (5)PHI 2 – 1 BUF · BUF 14% → 32% +18BUF 14% → 32%+18 pts
- P33:03Cole Knuble Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Bonk (4)PHI 3 – 1 BUF · PHI 71% → 89% +18PHI 71% → 89%+18 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Sabres 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 61%
- Fair odds
- BUF -154
- PHI +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.8 – 3.4 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | −3 | PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −6 | — | Key absences: Tyson Foerster, Owen Tippett |
| Elo ratings | BUF +75 Elo | BUF 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 60.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 321.5 | Goals scored | 3.017th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.826th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−1.7 | Margin | −0.825th of 32 |
| 31st of 3239.9% | Shot share | 51.1%13th of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 86.1%31st of 32 |
| 29th of 320–5 | Road vs home | 3–215th of 32 |
| 1st of 321528 | Opponent Elo | 150313th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321477 | Elo rating | 15308th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–5 | 5–4 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–4 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 2–9 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 6–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 4–5 BUF in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.