Buffalo Sabres at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
ANA went from 47% to 46% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Wednesday, October 28 at 2:03 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Tage ThompsonGoals3
- Peyton KrebsAssists3
- Tage ThompsonPoints5
Ducks- Cutter GauthierGoals2
- Leo CarlssonAssists3
- Leo CarlssonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:29Beckett Sennecke Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: none7–6
- P318:52Tristan Luneau Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Judd Caulfield (3)7–5
- P37:26Cutter Gauthier Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (13), Leo Carlsson (14)7–4
- P36:37Zach Benson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Olen Zellweger (3)7–3
- P31:57Jack Quinn Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (7), Rasmus Dahlin (5)6–3
- P218:51Tage Thompson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (4), Peyton Krebs (7)5–3
- P218:36Tage Thompson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (6)4–3
- P115:32Tage Thompson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (9), Peyton Krebs (5)3–3
- P111:39Noah Ostlund Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Benson (8), Tage Thompson (6)2–3
- P110:38Roger McQueen Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Colangelo (4), Nick Jensen (1)1–3
- P110:03Tyson Kozak Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Carrick (1), Mattias Samuelsson (6)1–2
- P12:54Cutter Gauthier Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (4), Leo Carlsson (13)0–2
- P11:57Mikael Granlund Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (12), Leo Carlsson (12)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:57Mikael Granlund Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (12), Leo Carlsson (12)BUF 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 46% → 60% +15ANA 46% → 60%+15 pts
- P111:39Noah Ostlund Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Benson (8), Tage Thompson (6)BUF 2 – 3 ANA · BUF 24% → 38% +14BUF 24% → 38%+14 pts
- P115:32Tage Thompson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (9), Peyton Krebs (5)BUF 3 – 3 ANA · BUF 37% → 54% +17BUF 37% → 54%+17 pts
- P218:36Tage Thompson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (6)BUF 4 – 3 ANA · BUF 53% → 75% +22BUF 53% → 75%+22 pts
- P218:51Tage Thompson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (4), Peyton Krebs (7)BUF 5 – 3 ANA · BUF 75% → 90% +15BUF 75% → 90%+15 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Sabres 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 54%
- ML BUF -130 / ANA +110
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- BUF: Elo 53.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- BUF -119
- ANA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.4 – 3.1 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | 0 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | — | −3 | Key absences: Ryan Poehling |
| Elo ratings | BUF +21 Elo | BUF 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 53.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.7 | Margin | −0.523rd of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.2% | Shot share | 45.9%28th of 32 |
| 29th of 3287.6% | Save percentage | 87.6%30th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 20th of 322–4 | Road vs home | 1–430th of 32 |
| 18th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 148728th of 32 |
| 10th of 321526 | Elo rating | 147028th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–4 | 6–6 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 7–4 | 5–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 3–3 ANA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.