Buffalo Sabres at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
SJ went from 45% to 44% over 4 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, October 26 at 3:19 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Zach BensonGoals1
- Owen PowerAssists2
- Owen PowerPoints2
SharksScoring summary
- P319:05Zach Benson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (5), Owen Power (9)2–0
- P20:50Olen Zellweger Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Konsta Helenius (2), Owen Power (8)1–0
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:50Olen Zellweger Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Konsta Helenius (2), Owen Power (8)BUF 1 – 0 SJ · BUF 55% → 72% +17BUF 55% → 72%+17 pts
- P319:05Zach Benson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (5), Owen Power (9)BUF 2 – 0 SJ · BUF >99% → >99% +0BUF >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Sabres 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 56%
- ML BUF -142 / SJ +120
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- BUF: Elo 57.2%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- BUF -129
- SJ +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.4 – 3.1 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1451 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −14 | BUF: Colten Ellis: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.34 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +50 Elo | BUF 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 53.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 3.626th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.9 | Margin | −0.523rd of 32 |
| 14th of 3249.8% | Shot share | 48.1%24th of 32 |
| 31st of 3286.6% | Save percentage | 89.2%17th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 27th of 321–4 | Road vs home | 2–219th of 32 |
| 10th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 15078th of 32 |
| 11th of 321523 | Elo rating | 145130th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–4 | 6–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 7–3 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 5–1 SJ in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.