Buffalo Sabres at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Josh DoanGoals1
- Rasmus DahlinAssists1
- Jack QuinnPoints1
Capitals- Dylan StromeGoals2
- Jordan KyrouAssists2
- Dylan StromePoints3
Scoring summary
- OT3:42Alex Tuch Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (6), Jakob Chychrun (6)3–4
- P32:20Noah Ostlund Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Power (7), Rasmus Dahlin (3)3–3
- P217:24Dylan Strome Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Sourdif (1), Martin Fehervary (2)2–3
- P22:59Dylan Strome Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Jordan Kyrou (6), Jakob Chychrun (5)2–2
- P116:10Alex Tuch Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Jordan Kyrou (5)2–1
- P110:36Josh Doan Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (2)2–0
- P16:27Jack Quinn Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Olen Zellweger (2), Zach Benson (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:27Jack Quinn Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Olen Zellweger (2), Zach Benson (7)BUF 1 – 0 WSH · BUF 48% → 63% +15BUF 48% → 63%+15 pts
- P22:59Dylan Strome Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Jordan Kyrou (6), Jakob Chychrun (5)BUF 2 – 2 WSH · WSH 34% → 52% +18WSH 34% → 52%+18 pts
- P217:24Dylan Strome Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Sourdif (1), Martin Fehervary (2)BUF 2 – 3 WSH · WSH 51% → 74% +22WSH 51% → 74%+22 pts
- P32:20Noah Ostlund Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Power (7), Rasmus Dahlin (3)BUF 3 – 3 WSH · BUF 24% → 49% +25BUF 24% → 49%+25 pts
- OT3:42Alex Tuch Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (6), Jakob Chychrun (6)BUF 3 – 4 WSH · WSH 50% → >99% +49WSH 50% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Capitals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 52%
- ML BUF +100 / WSH -120
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- WSH: Elo 52.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- WSH -109
- BUF +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.2 – 3.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −16 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.40 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | — | −3 | Key absences: Vincent Desharnais |
| Elo ratings | WSH +15 Elo | WSH 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 52.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 3.217th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.9 | Margin | +0.116th of 32 |
| 13th of 3251.0% | Shot share | 47.8%23rd of 32 |
| 30th of 3286.4% | Save percentage | 90.0%9th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321–3 | Road vs home | 4–211th of 32 |
| 18th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 15212nd of 32 |
| 9th of 321525 | Elo rating | 152212th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–4 | 4–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–4 | 4–5 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 6–3 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 5–4 WSH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.