San Jose Sharks at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Kiefer SherwoodGoals1
- Jacob TroubaAssists2
- Jacob TroubaPoints2
Bruins- Casey MittelstadtGoals1
- Elias LindholmAssists2
- Casey MittelstadtPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:32William Borgen Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–6
- P312:27Will Smith Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jacob Trouba (6), Macklin Celebrini (10)4–5
- P312:00Fraser Minten Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (5), Casey Mittelstadt (3)3–5
- P39:07James Hagens Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (6)3–4
- P38:27David Pastrnak Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (4)3–3
- P34:03Dmitry Orlov Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Ivar Stenberg (6), Mason Marchment (1)3–2
- P213:34Kiefer Sherwood Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none2–2
- P28:20Marat Khusnutdinov Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Morgan Geekie (8), Fraser Minten (5)1–2
- P15:54Michael Misa Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Tyler Toffoli (5), Jacob Trouba (5)1–1
- P13:08Casey Mittelstadt Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (5), James Hagens (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:20Marat Khusnutdinov Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Morgan Geekie (8), Fraser Minten (5)SJ 1 – 2 BOS · BOS 60% → 77% +18BOS 60% → 77%+18 pts
- P213:34Kiefer Sherwood Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: noneSJ 2 – 2 BOS · SJ 22% → 41% +19SJ 22% → 41%+19 pts
- P34:03Dmitry Orlov Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Ivar Stenberg (6), Mason Marchment (1)SJ 3 – 2 BOS · SJ 43% → 70% +27SJ 43% → 70%+27 pts
- P38:27David Pastrnak Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (4)SJ 3 – 3 BOS · BOS 25% → 56% +31BOS 25% → 56%+31 pts
- P39:07James Hagens Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (6)SJ 3 – 4 BOS · BOS 56% → 84% +28BOS 56% → 84%+28 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Bruins 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 63%
- ML SJ +160 / BOS -192
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- BOS: Elo 63.9%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -171
- SJ +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.9 – 3.6 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +17 | +6 | SJ: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.42 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −3 | — | Key absences: Igor Chernyshov |
| Elo ratings | BOS +99 Elo | BOS 63.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 61.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.86th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.02nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.4 | Margin | +1.81st of 32 |
| 20th of 3248.5% | Shot share | 47.6%25th of 32 |
| 12th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 93.2%2nd of 32 |
| 12th of 275–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 27 |
| 7th of 324–3 | Road vs home | 4–14th of 32 |
| 12th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 149424th of 32 |
| 29th of 321454 | Elo rating | 15268th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–5 | 9–2 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 5–0 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 6–5 | 4–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 3–4 BOS in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.