Vancouver Canucks at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
ANA went from 63% to 64% over 4 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, October 26 at 3:19 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Jonathan LekkerimakiGoals2
- Brock BoeserAssists2
- Jonathan LekkerimakiPoints3
Ducks- A.J. GreerGoals2
- Jackson LaCombeAssists3
- Jackson LaCombePoints3
Scoring summary
- OT4:49Filip Hronek Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (8), Jonathan Lekkerimaki (6)6–5
- P318:03Jonathan Lekkerimaki Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (11), Filip Hronek (9)5–5
- P317:14Jonathan Lekkerimaki Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–5
- P312:54Jamie Oleksiak Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (7), Elias Pettersson (10)3–5
- P312:23A.J. Greer Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Sam Colangelo (3), Jackson LaCombe (11)2–5
- P311:40Brock Boeser Goal (4) Deflected, assists: none2–4
- P218:24Leo Carlsson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeff Malott (3), Tristan Luneau (5)1–4
- P215:44Beckett Sennecke Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Cutter Gauthier (5), Leo Carlsson (11)1–3
- P27:06Jeff Malott Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Jackson LaCombe (10), Noah Warren (4)1–2
- P26:36Liam Ohgren Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Linus Karlsson (6), Zeev Buium (4)1–1
- P115:52A.J. Greer Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (9), Sam Colangelo (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:52A.J. Greer Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (9), Sam Colangelo (2)VAN 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 62% → 77% +15ANA 62% → 77%+15 pts
- P26:36Liam Ohgren Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Linus Karlsson (6), Zeev Buium (4)VAN 1 – 1 ANA · VAN 23% → 40% +17VAN 23% → 40%+17 pts
- P27:06Jeff Malott Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Jackson LaCombe (10), Noah Warren (4)VAN 1 – 2 ANA · ANA 60% → 77% +17ANA 60% → 77%+17 pts
- P318:03Jonathan Lekkerimaki Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (11), Filip Hronek (9)VAN 5 – 5 ANA · VAN 2% → 47% +46VAN 2% → 47%+46 pts
- OT4:49Filip Hronek Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (8), Jonathan Lekkerimaki (6)VAN 6 – 5 ANA · VAN 49% → >99% +51VAN 49% → >99%+51 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Ducks 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- ANA 64%
- ML VAN +164 / ANA -198
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- ANA: Elo 66.4%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- ANA -175
- VAN +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.9 – 3.6 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1403 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −14 | +2 | VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.35 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | — | −3 | Key absences: Ryan Poehling |
| Elo ratings | ANA +118 Elo | ANA 66.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 66.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 66.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ANA 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 32 |
| 32nd of 324.6 | Goals allowed | 3.424th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.8 | Margin | −0.523rd of 32 |
| 32nd of 3237.2% | Shot share | 46.4%28th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3286.4% | Save percentage | 88.2%27th of 32 |
| 32nd of 320–10 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 29th of 321–6 | Road vs home | 1–329th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321522 | Opponent Elo | 149524th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321403 | Elo rating | 147326th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–8 | 6–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 4–8 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 6–7 | 4–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 9–2 ANA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.