Ottawa Senators at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
ANA went from 50% to 48% over 3 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, October 31 at 11:25 AM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Claude GirouxGoals1
- Jake SandersonAssists2
- Claude GirouxPoints2
Ducks- Cutter GauthierGoals3
- Leo CarlssonAssists3
- Cutter GauthierPoints3
Scoring summary
- P315:19Roger McQueen Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Judd Caulfield (4), Tristan Luneau (7)3–6
- P32:26Cutter Gauthier Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (17), Mikael Granlund (7)3–5
- P31:50Cutter Gauthier Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (14), Leo Carlsson (16)3–4
- P219:18Judd Caulfield Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Tristan Luneau (6), Nikita Nesterenko (2)3–3
- P23:33Judd Caulfield Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Warren (5), Leo Carlsson (15)3–2
- P21:35Cutter Gauthier Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–1
- P117:37Michael Amadio Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (7), Jake Sanderson (9)3–0
- P17:02Claude Giroux Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (8), Artem Zub (4)2–0
- P16:00Philip Tomasino Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (5), Drake Batherson (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:00Philip Tomasino Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (5), Drake Batherson (9)OTT 1 – 0 ANA · OTT 52% → 66% +15OTT 52% → 66%+15 pts
- P23:33Judd Caulfield Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Warren (5), Leo Carlsson (15)OTT 3 – 2 ANA · ANA 17% → 31% +14ANA 17% → 31%+14 pts
- P219:18Judd Caulfield Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Tristan Luneau (6), Nikita Nesterenko (2)OTT 3 – 3 ANA · ANA 26% → 49% +23ANA 26% → 49%+23 pts
- P31:50Cutter Gauthier Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (14), Leo Carlsson (16)OTT 3 – 4 ANA · ANA 49% → 74% +25ANA 49% → 74%+25 pts
- P32:26Cutter Gauthier Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (17), Mikael Granlund (7)OTT 3 – 5 ANA · ANA 74% → 91% +17ANA 74% → 91%+17 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Senators 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 52%
- ML OTT -118 / ANA -102
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 41%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.0 pts
- OTT: Elo 40.7%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- OTT -107
- ANA +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.3 – 3.2 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | OTT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −20 | +35 | OTT: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.51 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · ANA: Laurent Brossoit: team allows 0.88 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | — | −3 | Key absences: Ryan Poehling |
| Elo ratings | ANA +65 Elo | ANA 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 53.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.314th of 32 |
| 10th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.831st of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.524th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.1% | Shot share | 46.6%28th of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 86.7%30th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 8th of 324–4 | Road vs home | 1–531st of 32 |
| 27th of 321487 | Opponent Elo | 149026th of 32 |
| 10th of 321525 | Elo rating | 146828th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–9 | 7–6 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 5–9 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 3–3 ANA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.