Ottawa Senators at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
VGK went from 64% to 58% over 4 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, October 26 at 3:19 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Shane PintoGoals1
- Drake BathersonAssists1
- Shane PintoPoints1
Golden Knights- William KarlssonGoals1
- Mark StoneAssists1
- William KarlssonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:53Jack Eichel Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Mark Stone (8)1–4
- P318:00William Karlsson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Connelly (5), Mitch Marner (11)1–3
- P38:01Raphael Lavoie Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nic Dowd (3), Ville Heinola (1)1–2
- P30:34Shane Pinto Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (6)1–1
- P219:49Braeden Bowman Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (9), Shea Theodore (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P219:49Braeden Bowman Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (9), Shea Theodore (3)OTT 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 55% → 77% +23VGK 55% → 77%+23 pts
- P30:34Shane Pinto Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (6)OTT 1 – 1 VGK · OTT 22% → 45% +23OTT 22% → 45%+23 pts
- P38:01Raphael Lavoie Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nic Dowd (3), Ville Heinola (1)OTT 1 – 2 VGK · VGK 54% → 82% +28VGK 54% → 82%+28 pts
- P318:00William Karlsson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Connelly (5), Mitch Marner (11)OTT 1 – 3 VGK · VGK 98% → >99% +2VGK 98% → >99%+2 pts
- P319:53Jack Eichel Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Mark Stone (8)OTT 1 – 4 VGK · VGK 100% → 100% +0VGK 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Golden Knights 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 58%
- ML OTT +130 / VGK -155
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- VGK: Elo 58.7%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- VGK -140
- OTT +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.0 – 3.5 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −19 | 0 | OTT: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.48 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +61 Elo | VGK 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 65.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 64.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.67th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.76th of 32 |
| 16th of 3249.4% | Shot share | 54.3%7th of 32 |
| 5th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 88.6%23rd of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 4th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 5–27th of 32 |
| 27th of 321487 | Opponent Elo | 148032nd of 32 |
| 9th of 321526 | Elo rating | 15336th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–7 | 5–8 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 5–7 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–7 | 10–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 3–3 VGK in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.