Vegas Golden Knights at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Tomas HertlGoals1
- Trevor ConnellyAssists1
- Tomas HertlPoints1
Blue Jackets- Denton MateychukGoals1
- Kent JohnsonAssists2
- Kent JohnsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:59Adam Fantilli Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (7), Kent Johnson (3)1–2
- P117:13Tomas Hertl Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Braeden Bowman (3), Trevor Connelly (4)1–1
- P111:51Denton Mateychuk Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Kent Johnson (2), Valeri Nichushkin (4)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:51Denton Mateychuk Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Kent Johnson (2), Valeri Nichushkin (4)VGK 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 45% → 61% +16CBJ 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P117:13Tomas Hertl Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Braeden Bowman (3), Trevor Connelly (4)VGK 1 – 1 CBJ · VGK 37% → 54% +17VGK 37% → 54%+17 pts
- OT0:59Adam Fantilli Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (7), Kent Johnson (3)VGK 1 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 49% → 92% +43CBJ 49% → 92%+43 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Golden Knights 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 55%
- ML VGK -135 / CBJ +114
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- VGK: Elo 53.1%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- VGK -123
- CBJ +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.4 – 3.1 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −13 | VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · CBJ: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.32 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −3 | — | Key absences: Mitch Marner |
| Elo ratings | VGK +22 Elo | VGK 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 53.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.8 | Goals scored | 2.528th of 32 |
| 11th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.628th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.8 | Margin | −1.127th of 32 |
| 7th of 3254.1% | Shot share | 49.9%14th of 32 |
| 19th of 3288.5% | Save percentage | 87.7%26th of 32 |
| 4th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 3–318th of 32 |
| 31st of 321478 | Opponent Elo | 150610th of 32 |
| 5th of 321536 | Elo rating | 148819th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–7 | 2–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–6 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 10–2 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 4–2 CBJ in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.