Vegas Golden Knights at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Jack EichelGoals1
- Brayden McNabbAssists1
- Jack EichelPoints1
Blues- Dylan HollowayGoals2
- Justin BarronAssists3
- Justin BarronPoints4
Scoring summary
- P316:05Dylan Holloway Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (3), Jimmy Snuggerud (2)2–6
- P310:29Dylan Holloway Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (5), Justin Barron (4)2–5
- P38:21Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (7), Justin Barron (3)2–4
- P34:08Jack Eichel Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Ivan Barbashev (8), Brayden McNabb (7)2–3
- P28:30Mason McTavish Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Adam Jiricek (1), Justin Barron (2)1–3
- P25:38Brett Howden Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (3), Alexander Holtz (1)1–2
- P113:49Justin Barron Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Aleksanteri Kaskimaki (1), Otto Stenberg (1)0–2
- P110:00Pavel Buchnevich Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonatan Berggren (3), Connor McMichael (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:00Pavel Buchnevich Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonatan Berggren (3), Connor McMichael (5)VGK 0 – 1 STL · STL 46% → 62% +16STL 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P25:38Brett Howden Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (3), Alexander Holtz (1)VGK 1 – 2 STL · VGK 19% → 34% +16VGK 19% → 34%+16 pts
- P28:30Mason McTavish Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Adam Jiricek (1), Justin Barron (2)VGK 1 – 3 STL · STL 66% → 82% +16STL 66% → 82%+16 pts
- P34:08Jack Eichel Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Ivan Barbashev (8), Brayden McNabb (7)VGK 2 – 3 STL · VGK 9% → 26% +17VGK 9% → 26%+17 pts
- P38:21Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (7), Justin Barron (3)VGK 2 – 4 STL · STL 78% → 95% +16STL 78% → 95%+16 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Golden Knights 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 54%
- ML VGK -130 / STL +110
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- VGK: Elo 49.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- VGK -119
- STL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.4 – 3.1 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +6 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | — | −3 | Key absences: Dillon Dube |
| Elo ratings | STL +2 Elo | STL 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 51.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 324.0 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.218th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+1.3 | Margin | 0.017th of 32 |
| 5th of 3254.7% | Shot share | 49.0%19th of 32 |
| 15th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 88.9%20th of 32 |
| 3rd of 323–1 | Road vs home | 2–19th of 32 |
| 30th of 321476 | Opponent Elo | 149818th of 32 |
| 5th of 321541 | Elo rating | 150215th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–6 | 4–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–5 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 9–2 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 6–3 STL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.