Tampa Bay Lightning at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Anthony CirelliGoals2
- Nikita KucherovAssists2
- Nikita KucherovPoints3
Golden Knights- Mark StoneGoals1
- Braeden BowmanAssists1
- Mark StonePoints1
Scoring summary
- P35:16Nikita Kucherov Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: none6–2
- P217:56Victor Hedman Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–2
- P210:09Anthony Cirelli Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: none4–2
- P26:44Anthony Cirelli Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (9)3–2
- P118:30Mark Stone Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Braeden Bowman (2)2–2
- P114:04John Carlson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–1
- P113:16Ivan Barbashev Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (10)1–1
- P14:11Brandon Hagel Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Charle-Edouard D'Astous (2), Nikita Kucherov (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:16Ivan Barbashev Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (10)TB 1 – 1 VGK · VGK 35% → 51% +16VGK 35% → 51%+16 pts
- P114:04John Carlson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneTB 2 – 1 VGK · TB 49% → 65% +16TB 49% → 65%+16 pts
- P118:30Mark Stone Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Braeden Bowman (2)TB 2 – 2 VGK · VGK 34% → 51% +17VGK 34% → 51%+17 pts
- P26:44Anthony Cirelli Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (9)TB 3 – 2 VGK · TB 49% → 68% +19TB 49% → 68%+19 pts
- P210:09Anthony Cirelli Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: noneTB 4 – 2 VGK · TB 69% → 85% +15TB 69% → 85%+15 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Golden Knights 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 51%
- ML TB -105 / VGK -115
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- VGK: Elo 53.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- VGK -104
- TB +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.2 – 3.3 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +1 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +23 Elo | VGK 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 53.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 4.22nd of 32 |
| 9th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 2.45th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.5 | Margin | +1.81st of 32 |
| 3rd of 3257.4% | Shot share | 54.0%6th of 32 |
| 15th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 90.9%6th of 32 |
| 15th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 5–14th of 32 |
| 27th of 321488 | Opponent Elo | 146732nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 321550 | Elo rating | 15474th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–4 | 5–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | 5–4 |
| Underdog | — | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–5 | 8–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 5–1 VGK in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.