Ottawa Senators at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
SJ went from 49% to 42% over 8 updates; the betting line was first on file Friday, October 30 at 12:03 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Shane PintoGoals1
- Jake SandersonAssists2
- Dylan CozensPoints2
Sharks- Michael MisaGoals1
- Jacob TroubaAssists1
- Michael MisaPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:30Shane Pinto Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (7)5–1
- P212:17Ridly Greig Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Shane Pinto (6)4–1
- P210:54Tim Stützle Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (6), Dylan Cozens (6)3–1
- P25:04Drake Batherson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Philip Tomasino (1), Thomas Chabot (4)2–1
- P116:06Michael Misa Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Trouba (7), Kiefer Sherwood (6)1–1
- P113:25Dylan Cozens Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (12), Artem Zub (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:25Dylan Cozens Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (12), Artem Zub (3)OTT 1 – 0 SJ · OTT 57% → 73% +15OTT 57% → 73%+15 pts
- P116:06Michael Misa Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Trouba (7), Kiefer Sherwood (6)OTT 1 – 1 SJ · SJ 27% → 43% +16SJ 27% → 43%+16 pts
- P25:04Drake Batherson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Philip Tomasino (1), Thomas Chabot (4)OTT 2 – 1 SJ · OTT 56% → 74% +17OTT 56% → 74%+17 pts
- P210:54Tim Stützle Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (6), Dylan Cozens (6)OTT 3 – 1 SJ · OTT 75% → 88% +14OTT 75% → 88%+14 pts
- P212:17Ridly Greig Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Shane Pinto (6)OTT 4 – 1 SJ · OTT 89% → 96% +7OTT 89% → 96%+7 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Senators 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 58%
- ML OTT -155 / SJ +130
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- OTT: Elo 54.0%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- OTT -140
- SJ +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.5 – 3.0 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −15 | −8 | OTT: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.38 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +28 Elo | OTT 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 52.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.420th of 32 |
| 18th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.523rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.2% | Shot share | 47.2%26th of 32 |
| 8th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 90.1%5th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 15th of 323–4 | Road vs home | 3–319th of 32 |
| 27th of 321490 | Opponent Elo | 150212th of 32 |
| 12th of 321520 | Elo rating | 145030th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–9 | 6–8 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–6 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders | 5–8 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 5–2 SJ in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.