Vancouver Canucks at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
SJ went from 62% to 64% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Wednesday, October 28 at 2:03 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Drew O'ConnorGoals1
- Filip HronekAssists1
- Drew O'ConnorPoints1
Sharks- Will SmithGoals2
- Mason MarchmentAssists1
- Will SmithPoints2
Scoring summary
- P310:50Mason Marchment Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (5), Nolan Allan (1)2–3
- P310:39Will Smith Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (11), Michael Kesselring (3)2–2
- P38:00Will Smith Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (4), Mason Marchment (2)2–1
- P218:56Liam Ohgren Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (10)2–0
- P113:21Drew O'Connor Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (12)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:21Drew O'Connor Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (12)VAN 1 – 0 SJ · VAN 38% → 54% +16VAN 38% → 54%+16 pts
- P218:56Liam Ohgren Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (10)VAN 2 – 0 SJ · VAN 66% → 85% +19VAN 66% → 85%+19 pts
- P38:00Will Smith Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (4), Mason Marchment (2)VAN 2 – 1 SJ · SJ 7% → 25% +18SJ 7% → 25%+18 pts
- P310:39Will Smith Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (11), Michael Kesselring (3)VAN 2 – 2 SJ · SJ 22% → 55% +34SJ 22% → 55%+34 pts
- P310:50Mason Marchment Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (5), Nolan Allan (1)VAN 2 – 3 SJ · SJ 55% → 86% +30SJ 55% → 86%+30 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Sharks 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- SJ 64%
- ML VAN +164 / SJ -198
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- SJ: Elo 58.7%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- SJ -175
- VAN +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.9 – 3.6 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1407 | 1448 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −11 | VAN: Leevi Merilainen: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SJ +61 Elo | SJ 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 60.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SJ 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.822nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 324.6 | Goals allowed | 3.527th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−1.6 | Margin | −0.624th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3238.8% | Shot share | 47.1%26th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3286.0% | Save percentage | 90.0%8th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321–9 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 25th of 322–6 | Road vs home | 2–326th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321519 | Opponent Elo | 15089th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321407 | Elo rating | 144830th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–8 | 6–7 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 5–8 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders | 7–7 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 8–4 SJ in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.