Ottawa Senators at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
LA went from 56% to 50% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Wednesday, October 28 at 2:03 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Dylan CozensGoals2
- Tim StutzleAssists3
- Dylan CozensPoints3
Kings- Artemi PanarinGoals1
- Drew DoughtyAssists3
- Drew DoughtyPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT3:37Quinton Byfield Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Drew Doughty (6), Artemi Panarin (5)5–6
- P318:20Shane Pinto Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Drake Batherson (8), Dylan Cozens (5)5–5
- P312:34Dylan Cozens Goal (3) Poke, assists: Tim Stützle (11), Drake Batherson (7)4–5
- P37:51Drake Batherson Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (5)3–5
- P37:18Dylan Cozens Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (10), Nikolas Matinpalo (3)2–5
- P215:43Artemi Panarin Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: none1–5
- P210:54Joel Armia Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–4
- P210:17Mikey Anderson Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Brian Dumoulin (1)1–3
- P26:51Trevor Moore Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Quinton Byfield (2), Drew Doughty (5)1–2
- P115:09Erik Haula Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Brandt Clarke (6), Drew Doughty (4)1–1
- P111:24Tyler Kleven Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (5), Tim Stützle (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:24Tyler Kleven Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (5), Tim Stützle (9)OTT 1 – 0 LA · OTT 50% → 66% +16OTT 50% → 66%+16 pts
- P115:09Erik Haula Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Brandt Clarke (6), Drew Doughty (4)OTT 1 – 1 LA · LA 34% → 50% +16LA 34% → 50%+16 pts
- P26:51Trevor Moore Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Quinton Byfield (2), Drew Doughty (5)OTT 1 – 2 LA · LA 50% → 69% +19LA 50% → 69%+19 pts
- P318:20Shane Pinto Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Drake Batherson (8), Dylan Cozens (5)OTT 5 – 5 LA · OTT 1% → 50% +49OTT 1% → 50%+49 pts
- OT3:37Quinton Byfield Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Drew Doughty (6), Artemi Panarin (5)OTT 5 – 6 LA · LA 50% → >99% +49LA 50% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Kings 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- LA 50%
- ML OTT -110 / LA -110
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- LA: Elo 49.4%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- LA -100
- OTT -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.8 – 2.8 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −17 | −2 | OTT: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.43 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | — | −1 | Key absences: Drew Doughty |
| Elo ratings | OTT +4 Elo | OTT 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 56.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.527th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.422nd of 32 |
| 18th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.828th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 48.6%20th of 32 |
| 5th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 89.4%13th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 8th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 0–332nd of 32 |
| 25th of 321491 | Opponent Elo | 150312th of 32 |
| 11th of 321523 | Elo rating | 147027th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–8 | 5–6 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–8 | 4–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 1–5 LA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.