Los Angeles Kings at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
CHI went from 48% to 47% over 4 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, October 26 at 3:19 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Samuel HeleniusGoals1
- Andre LeeAssists1
- Samuel HeleniusPoints1
Blackhawks- Wyatt KaiserGoals1
- Patrick KaneAssists1
- Wyatt KaiserPoints1
Scoring summary
- P37:17Wyatt Kaiser Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Frank Nazar (2), Patrick Kane (7)1–2
- P216:40Roman Kantserov Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (4), Teuvo Teravainen (4)1–1
- P12:31Samuel Helenius Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared Wright (1), Andre Lee (2)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:31Samuel Helenius Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared Wright (1), Andre Lee (2)LA 1 – 0 CHI · LA 53% → 67% +14LA 53% → 67%+14 pts
- P216:40Roman Kantserov Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (4), Teuvo Teravainen (4)LA 1 – 1 CHI · CHI 27% → 48% +22CHI 27% → 48%+22 pts
- P37:17Wyatt Kaiser Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Frank Nazar (2), Patrick Kane (7)LA 1 – 2 CHI · CHI 49% → 78% +29CHI 49% → 78%+29 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Kings 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- LA 53%
- ML LA -122 / CHI +102
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- LA: Elo 48.9%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- LA -111
- CHI +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.8 – 2.7 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1415 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | LA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +1 | LA: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +7 Elo | CHI 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 51.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.231st of 32 |
| 25th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.931st of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.8 | Margin | −1.731st of 32 |
| 19th of 3248.6% | Shot share | 41.1%31st of 32 |
| 16th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 88.0%27th of 32 |
| 15th of 323–4 | Road vs home | 3–425th of 32 |
| 8th of 321509 | Opponent Elo | 15194th of 32 |
| 28th of 321472 | Elo rating | 141531st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–5 | 5–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | — |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 4–6 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 6–3 CHI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.