Florida Panthers at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Lars EllerGoals1
- Carter VerhaegheAssists1
- Lars EllerPoints1
Blackhawks- Ryan GreeneGoals1
- Kevin KorchinskiAssists1
- Ryan GreenePoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:37Lars Eller Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (4)3–2
- P211:15Roman Kantserov Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (6), Connor Bedard (3)2–2
- P114:21Matthew Tkachuk Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Seth Jones (11), Brady Tkachuk (5)2–1
- P16:49Sandis Vilmanis Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Sam Reinhart (4), Carter Verhaeghe (3)1–1
- P12:34Ryan Greene Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (1), Kevin Korchinski (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:34Ryan Greene Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (1), Kevin Korchinski (1)FLA 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 39% → 53% +15CHI 39% → 53%+15 pts
- P16:49Sandis Vilmanis Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Sam Reinhart (4), Carter Verhaeghe (3)FLA 1 – 1 CHI · FLA 46% → 61% +15FLA 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P114:21Matthew Tkachuk Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Seth Jones (11), Brady Tkachuk (5)FLA 2 – 1 CHI · FLA 60% → 75% +15FLA 60% → 75%+15 pts
- P211:15Roman Kantserov Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (6), Connor Bedard (3)FLA 2 – 2 CHI · CHI 23% → 42% +19CHI 23% → 42%+19 pts
- P317:37Lars Eller Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (4)FLA 3 – 2 CHI · FLA 52% → 97% +45FLA 52% → 97%+45 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Panthers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 62%
- ML FLA -180 / CHI +150
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- FLA: Elo 56.7%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- FLA -161
- CHI +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.6 – 2.9 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1417 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +1 | FLA: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −3 | — | Key absences: Brad Marchand |
| Elo ratings | FLA +47 Elo | FLA 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 63.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 62.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.231st of 32 |
| 11th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 4.031st of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −1.832nd of 32 |
| 9th of 3253.5% | Shot share | 41.4%31st of 32 |
| 25th of 3288.0% | Save percentage | 87.7%26th of 32 |
| 15th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 3–318th of 32 |
| 24th of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 15203rd of 32 |
| 14th of 321503 | Elo rating | 141731st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | — |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 4–2 CHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.