Montreal Canadiens at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Jake EvansGoals2
- Jake EvansAssists1
- Jake EvansPoints3
Blackhawks- Connor BedardGoals1
- Patrick KaneAssists1
- Connor BedardPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:22Mike Matheson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (3)4–1
- P218:26Kaiden Guhle Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Evans (1), Alexandre Carrier (4)3–1
- P27:45Jake Evans Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaiden Guhle (2)2–1
- P117:29Jake Evans Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirby Dach (2), Owen Beck (1)1–1
- P14:23Connor Bedard Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:23Connor Bedard Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (5)MTL 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 40% → 55% +15CHI 40% → 55%+15 pts
- P117:29Jake Evans Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirby Dach (2), Owen Beck (1)MTL 1 – 1 CHI · MTL 42% → 59% +17MTL 42% → 59%+17 pts
- P27:45Jake Evans Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaiden Guhle (2)MTL 2 – 1 CHI · MTL 58% → 76% +18MTL 58% → 76%+18 pts
- P218:26Kaiden Guhle Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Evans (1), Alexandre Carrier (4)MTL 3 – 1 CHI · MTL 78% → 92% +14MTL 78% → 92%+14 pts
- P317:22Mike Matheson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (3)MTL 4 – 1 CHI · MTL >99% → >99% +0MTL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Canadiens 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 60%
- ML MTL -170 / CHI +142
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- MTL: Elo 58.3%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- MTL -152
- CHI +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.5 – 3.0 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1420 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +2 | MTL: Jacob Fowler: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −9 | — | Key absences: Nick Suzuki |
| Elo ratings | MTL +58 Elo | MTL 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 57.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 60.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.330th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.8 | Goals allowed | 4.030th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.4 | Margin | −1.730th of 32 |
| 10th of 3253.0% | Shot share | 41.2%30th of 32 |
| 28th of 3286.8% | Save percentage | 87.5%27th of 32 |
| 17th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 3–215th of 32 |
| 13th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 15204th of 32 |
| 12th of 321519 | Elo rating | 142031st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 2–7 | 4–5 |
| Last 10 | 2–7 | 4–5 |
| Favorite | 0–6 | — |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 7–2 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2 | 6–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 4–2 CHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.