Anaheim Ducks at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
VAN went from 46% to 42% over 4 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, November 2 at 9:01 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Cutter GauthierGoals3
- Beckett SenneckeAssists4
- Beckett SenneckePoints4
Canucks- Jake DeBruskGoals2
- Elias PetterssonAssists2
- Jake DeBruskPoints2
Scoring summary
- P39:34Jake DeBrusk Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Jamie Oleksiak (4), Elias Pettersson (14)5–4
- P35:30Jake DeBrusk Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Elias Pettersson (13), Brock Boeser (9)5–3
- P34:11Cutter Gauthier Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (8), Tristan Luneau (8)5–2
- P218:25Cutter Gauthier Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (7), Mikael Granlund (9)4–2
- P28:17Linus Karlsson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Drew O'Connor (3)3–2
- P22:58Leo Carlsson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Mintyukov (3), Mikael Granlund (8)3–1
- P117:07Cutter Gauthier Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (6), Jackson LaCombe (16)2–1
- P16:04Liam Ohgren Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (3), Paul Cotter (4)1–1
- P14:04Mikael Granlund Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (5), Jackson LaCombe (15)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:04Mikael Granlund Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (5), Jackson LaCombe (15)ANA 1 – 0 VAN · ANA 58% → 72% +14ANA 58% → 72%+14 pts
- P16:04Liam Ohgren Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (3), Paul Cotter (4)ANA 1 – 1 VAN · VAN 28% → 42% +14VAN 28% → 42%+14 pts
- P117:07Cutter Gauthier Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (6), Jackson LaCombe (16)ANA 2 – 1 VAN · ANA 57% → 73% +16ANA 57% → 73%+16 pts
- P218:25Cutter Gauthier Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (7), Mikael Granlund (9)ANA 4 – 2 VAN · ANA 77% → 91% +14ANA 77% → 91%+14 pts
- P39:34Jake DeBrusk Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Jamie Oleksiak (4), Elias Pettersson (14)ANA 5 – 4 VAN · VAN 3% → 17% +13VAN 3% → 17%+13 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Ducks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- ANA 58%
- ML ANA -155 / VAN +130
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- ANA: Elo 56.5%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- ANA -140
- VAN +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.5 – 3.0 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1401 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −16 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.40 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −3 | — | Key absences: Ryan Poehling |
| Elo ratings | ANA +46 Elo | ANA 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 56.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ANA 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 32 |
| 30th of 323.8 | Goals allowed | 4.532nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.3 | Margin | −1.631st of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.6% | Shot share | 40.2%32nd of 32 |
| 31st of 3286.7% | Save percentage | 86.2%32nd of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 1–931st of 32 |
| 7th of 324–3 | Road vs home | 1–632nd of 32 |
| 24th of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 15137th of 32 |
| 26th of 321471 | Elo rating | 140132nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–6 | 7–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 6–9 |
| Overs–unders | 7–7 | 7–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 2–10 VAN in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.