Toronto Maple Leafs at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
VAN went from 41% to 37% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Friday, October 30 at 12:03 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Teddy BluegerGoals1
- Teddy BluegerAssists1
- Teddy BluegerPoints2
Canucks- Max SassonGoals1
- Brendan GallagherAssists1
- Brock BoeserPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:24Teddy Blueger Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (11), Anthony Stolarz (3)4–2
- P39:27Max Sasson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brendan Gallagher (2)3–2
- P212:34Zack MacEwen Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (11), Teddy Blueger (2)3–1
- P23:47Auston Matthews Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (9), Jack Roslovic (10)2–1
- P110:30Brock Boeser Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (11), Jonathan Lekkerimaki (7)1–1
- P11:23William Nylander Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Nick Paul (4), Jake McCabe (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:23William Nylander Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Nick Paul (4), Jake McCabe (3)TOR 1 – 0 VAN · TOR 63% → 76% +13TOR 63% → 76%+13 pts
- P110:30Brock Boeser Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (11), Jonathan Lekkerimaki (7)TOR 1 – 1 VAN · VAN 24% → 38% +14VAN 24% → 38%+14 pts
- P23:47Auston Matthews Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (9), Jack Roslovic (10)TOR 2 – 1 VAN · TOR 60% → 77% +16TOR 60% → 77%+16 pts
- P212:34Zack MacEwen Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (11), Teddy Blueger (2)TOR 3 – 1 VAN · TOR 78% → 90% +13TOR 78% → 90%+13 pts
- P39:27Max Sasson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brendan Gallagher (2)TOR 3 – 2 VAN · VAN 3% → 16% +13VAN 3% → 16%+13 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Maple Leafs 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 63%
- ML TOR -192 / VAN +160
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- TOR: Elo 57.8%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -171
- VAN +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.6 – 2.9 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1405 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −15 | TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.39 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −6 | — | Key absences: Kirill Marchenko, John Tavares |
| Elo ratings | TOR +55 Elo | TOR 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 61.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.7 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 4.532nd of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −1.531st of 32 |
| 20th of 3248.9% | Shot share | 39.5%32nd of 32 |
| 14th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 86.1%32nd of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 1–931st of 32 |
| 17th of 323–4 | Road vs home | 1–531st of 32 |
| 14th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 15156th of 32 |
| 21st of 321480 | Elo rating | 140532nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–8 | 7–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–8 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 6–0 | 6–8 |
| Overs–unders | 10–5 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 3–3 VAN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.