Toronto Maple Leafs at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
SEA went from 50% to 45% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Tuesday, October 27 at 10:34 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Gavin McKennaGoals2
- Auston MatthewsAssists2
- Gavin McKennaPoints3
Kraken- Chandler StephensonGoals1
- Matty BeniersAssists2
- Chandler StephensonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:27Brandon Montour Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (6), Matty Beniers (4)4–5
- P318:30Auston Matthews Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (8), Gavin McKenna (6)4–4
- P38:02Jack Roslovic Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Easton Cowan (8), Troy Stecher (3)3–4
- P210:58Ryker Evans Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (3), Chandler Stephenson (9)2–4
- P23:33Chandler Stephenson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (7), Matty Beniers (3)2–3
- P21:46Gavin McKenna Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (13), Jack Roslovic (9)2–2
- P20:16Josh Mahura Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ben Meyers (5), Freddy Gaudreau (3)1–2
- P119:14Gavin McKenna Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (12), Darren Raddysh (7)1–1
- P11:59Berkly Catton Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:16Josh Mahura Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ben Meyers (5), Freddy Gaudreau (3)TOR 1 – 2 SEA · SEA 46% → 63% +18SEA 46% → 63%+18 pts
- P21:46Gavin McKenna Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (13), Jack Roslovic (9)TOR 2 – 2 SEA · TOR 36% → 54% +18TOR 36% → 54%+18 pts
- P23:33Chandler Stephenson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (7), Matty Beniers (3)TOR 2 – 3 SEA · SEA 46% → 64% +18SEA 46% → 64%+18 pts
- P318:30Auston Matthews Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (8), Gavin McKenna (6)TOR 4 – 4 SEA · TOR 1% → 51% +50TOR 1% → 51%+50 pts
- P319:27Brandon Montour Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (6), Matty Beniers (4)TOR 4 – 5 SEA · SEA 50% → >99% +50SEA 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Maple Leafs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 55%
- ML TOR -135 / SEA +114
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.3 pts
- TOR: Elo 45.8%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -123
- SEA +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.4 – 3.1 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −2 | TOR: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −6 | −3 | Key absences: Jared McCann, Kirill Marchenko, John Tavares |
| Elo ratings | SEA +29 Elo | SEA 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 50.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.7 | Goals scored | 3.85th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.528th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.314th of 32 |
| 20th of 3248.5% | Shot share | 45.1%29th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 89.5%13th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 9th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 3–214th of 32 |
| 13th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 150411th of 32 |
| 21st of 321482 | Elo rating | 147326th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–7 | 7–5 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–7 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 6–0 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 9–5 | 9–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 4–2 SEA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.