Edmonton Oilers at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
NJ went from 59% to 58% over 4 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, November 2 at 9:01 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Evan BouchardGoals1
- Kasperi KapanenAssists2
- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsPoints2
Devils- Jack HughesGoals2
- Jack HughesAssists1
- Jack HughesPoints3
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Arseny Gritsyuk Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Jesper Bratt Goal Backhand1–2
- SO0:00Connor McDavid Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- P31:00Leon Draisaitl Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (5), Connor McDavid (31)3–3
- P218:16Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (19), Kasperi Kapanen (4)2–3
- P215:35Jack Hughes Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Connor Brown (2), Nico Hischier (3)1–3
- P214:50Jack Hughes Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Dougie Hamilton (6), Jesper Bratt (11)1–2
- P27:42Connor Brown Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (11), Luke Hughes (3)1–1
- P18:29Evan Bouchard Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (4), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:29Evan Bouchard Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (4), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (5)EDM 1 – 0 NJ · EDM 42% → 58% +16EDM 42% → 58%+16 pts
- P27:42Connor Brown Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (11), Luke Hughes (3)EDM 1 – 1 NJ · NJ 37% → 56% +20NJ 37% → 56%+20 pts
- P214:50Jack Hughes Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Dougie Hamilton (6), Jesper Bratt (11)EDM 1 – 2 NJ · NJ 55% → 76% +20NJ 55% → 76%+20 pts
- P218:16Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (19), Kasperi Kapanen (4)EDM 2 – 3 NJ · EDM 9% → 23% +14EDM 9% → 23%+14 pts
- P31:00Leon Draisaitl Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (5), Connor McDavid (31)EDM 3 – 3 NJ · EDM 22% → 45% +23EDM 22% → 45%+23 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Devils 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 58%
- ML EDM +130 / NJ -155
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- NJ: Elo 50.8%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- NJ -140
- EDM +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.0 – 3.5 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +5 | EDM: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · NJ: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +5 Elo | NJ 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 58.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.3 | Goals scored | 3.412th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.96th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.3 | Margin | +0.66th of 32 |
| 15th of 3249.6% | Shot share | 56.8%2nd of 32 |
| 11th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 88.7%19th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 1st of 327–0 | Road vs home | 6–25th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321481 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 32 |
| 6th of 321538 | Elo rating | 150615th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–5 | 7–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–4 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–7 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 2–4 NJ in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.