New Jersey Devils at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
VGK went from 60% to 51% over 8 updates; the betting line was first on file Friday, October 30 at 12:03 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Jack HughesGoals2
- Jesper BrattAssists1
- Jack HughesPoints2
Golden Knights- Ivan BarbashevGoals1
- Mitch MarnerAssists2
- Mitch MarnerPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:09Jack Hughes Goal (6) Backhand, assists: none5–2
- P218:16Arseny Gritsyuk Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Jonas Siegenthaler (3)4–2
- P23:49Jack Hughes Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (10)3–2
- P118:51Arseny Gritsyuk Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–2
- P117:57Ivan Barbashev Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (13), Brayden McNabb (8)1–2
- P116:27Mark Stone Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Mitch Marner (12)1–1
- P15:38Luke Hughes Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Mantha (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:27Mark Stone Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Mitch Marner (12)NJ 1 – 1 VGK · VGK 34% → 51% +17VGK 34% → 51%+17 pts
- P117:57Ivan Barbashev Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (13), Brayden McNabb (8)NJ 1 – 2 VGK · VGK 51% → 68% +17VGK 51% → 68%+17 pts
- P118:51Arseny Gritsyuk Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNJ 2 – 2 VGK · NJ 32% → 49% +17NJ 32% → 49%+17 pts
- P23:49Jack Hughes Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (10)NJ 3 – 2 VGK · NJ 49% → 67% +18NJ 49% → 67%+18 pts
- P218:16Arseny Gritsyuk Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Jonas Siegenthaler (3)NJ 4 – 2 VGK · NJ 72% → 88% +16NJ 72% → 88%+16 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Golden Knights 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 51%
- ML NJ -105 / VGK -115
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.4 pts
- VGK: Elo 59.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- VGK -104
- NJ +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.2 – 3.3 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | 0 | NJ: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +67 Elo | VGK 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 57.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.67th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.86th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.95th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3256.5% | Shot share | 54.2%8th of 32 |
| 24th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 89.2%18th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 18th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 6–25th of 32 |
| 17th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 148230th of 32 |
| 16th of 321501 | Elo rating | 15375th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–7 | 6–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 6–7 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–6 | 10–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 2–4 VGK in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.