New Jersey Devils at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
DAL went from 60% to 53% over 4 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, October 26 at 3:19 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Nico HischierGoals2
- Jack HughesAssists1
- Nico HischierPoints2
Stars- Justin HryckowianGoals1
- Tyler MyersAssists1
- Justin HryckowianPoints1
Scoring summary
- P313:15Jack Hughes Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Brett Pesce (4), Jesper Bratt (9)5–1
- P216:36Luke Hughes Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Dougie Hamilton (5), Anthony Mantha (2)4–1
- P216:08Justin Hryckowian Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Tyler Myers (1), Colin Blackwell (1)3–1
- P211:45Jesper Boqvist Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (10), Arseny Gritsyuk (4)3–0
- P20:38Nico Hischier Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Timo Meier (4), Luke Hughes (2)2–0
- P12:41Nico Hischier Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (5), Johnathan Kovacevic (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:41Nico Hischier Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (5), Johnathan Kovacevic (1)NJ 1 – 0 DAL · NJ 47% → 62% +15NJ 47% → 62%+15 pts
- P20:38Nico Hischier Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Timo Meier (4), Luke Hughes (2)NJ 2 – 0 DAL · NJ 65% → 80% +15NJ 65% → 80%+15 pts
- P211:45Jesper Boqvist Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (10), Arseny Gritsyuk (4)NJ 3 – 0 DAL · NJ 84% → 94% +9NJ 84% → 94%+9 pts
- P216:08Justin Hryckowian Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Tyler Myers (1), Colin Blackwell (1)NJ 3 – 1 DAL · DAL 5% → 13% +9DAL 5% → 13%+9 pts
- P216:36Luke Hughes Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Dougie Hamilton (5), Anthony Mantha (2)NJ 4 – 1 DAL · NJ 87% → 96% +9NJ 87% → 96%+9 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Stars 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 53%
- ML NJ +105 / DAL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.0 pts
- DAL: Elo 62.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- DAL -114
- NJ +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.7 – 2.8 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +3 | NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +87 Elo | DAL 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 57.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.919th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 1.81st of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +1.13rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3258.8% | Shot share | 56.1%4th of 32 |
| 25th of 3288.2% | Save percentage | 92.8%1st of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 18th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 4–211th of 32 |
| 25th of 321491 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 32 |
| 17th of 321497 | Elo rating | 15464th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–6 | 5–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–6 | 1–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 2–4 DAL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 6.