New Jersey Devils at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
COL went from 68% to 57% over 8 updates; the betting line was first on file Tuesday, October 27 at 10:34 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Connor BrownGoals2
- Cody GlassAssists1
- Connor BrownPoints2
Avalanche- Nazem KadriGoals1
- Sam MalinskiAssists2
- Nazem KadriPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:35Connor Brown Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Amadeus Lombardi (4), Cody Glass (1)2–5
- P312:30Jaden Schwartz Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Malinski (5), Nazem Kadri (8)1–5
- P312:00Nathan MacKinnon Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (5), Sam Malinski (4)1–4
- P33:47Parker Kelly Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brent Burns (5), Fedor Svechkov (5)1–3
- P32:45Nazem Kadri Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (3), Brent Burns (4)1–2
- P210:58Gabriel Landeskog Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Jaden Schwartz (5), Devon Toews (7)1–1
- P112:21Connor Brown Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:21Connor Brown Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNJ 1 – 0 COL · NJ 44% → 60% +16NJ 44% → 60%+16 pts
- P210:58Gabriel Landeskog Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Jaden Schwartz (5), Devon Toews (7)NJ 1 – 1 COL · COL 35% → 55% +21COL 35% → 55%+21 pts
- P32:45Nazem Kadri Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (3), Brent Burns (4)NJ 1 – 2 COL · COL 54% → 78% +24COL 54% → 78%+24 pts
- P33:47Parker Kelly Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brent Burns (5), Fedor Svechkov (5)NJ 1 – 3 COL · COL 79% → 93% +15COL 79% → 93%+15 pts
- P312:00Nathan MacKinnon Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (5), Sam Malinski (4)NJ 1 – 4 COL · COL 98% → >99% +2COL 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Avalanche 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- COL 57%
- ML NJ +124 / COL -148
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.0 pts
- COL: Elo 66.2%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- COL -134
- NJ +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.0 – 3.5 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −6 | NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +117 Elo | COL 66.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 64.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 4.12nd of 32 |
| 6th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.322nd of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.7 | Margin | +0.76th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3258.9% | Shot share | 50.6%11th of 32 |
| 25th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 89.1%19th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 9th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 4–210th of 32 |
| 24th of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 32 |
| 15th of 321504 | Elo rating | 15622nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–6 | 7–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 6–6 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 3–4 COL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.