Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
TOR went from 50% to 49% over 3 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Alex NewhookGoals2
- Kirby DachAssists1
- Alex NewhookPoints2
Maple Leafs- William NylanderGoals1
- Colton SissonsAssists1
- William NylanderPoints1
Scoring summary
- P312:15Zachary Bolduc Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (14), Cole Caufield (5)4–2
- P37:14Gavin McKenna Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Dakota Joshua (1), Colton Sissons (4)3–2
- P36:19William Nylander Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (10), Auston Matthews (16)3–1
- P212:57Chris Kreider Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–0
- P113:06Alex Newhook Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Kaiden Guhle (4), Kirby Dach (5)2–0
- P15:56Alex Newhook Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Kapanen (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:56Alex Newhook Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Kapanen (1)MTL 1 – 0 TOR · MTL 51% → 66% +15MTL 51% → 66%+15 pts
- P113:06Alex Newhook Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Kaiden Guhle (4), Kirby Dach (5)MTL 2 – 0 TOR · MTL 67% → 80% +13MTL 67% → 80%+13 pts
- P212:57Chris Kreider Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneMTL 3 – 0 TOR · MTL 86% → 95% +9MTL 86% → 95%+9 pts
- P37:14Gavin McKenna Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Dakota Joshua (1), Colton Sissons (4)MTL 3 – 2 TOR · TOR 6% → 21% +16TOR 6% → 21%+16 pts
- P312:15Zachary Bolduc Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (14), Cole Caufield (5)MTL 4 – 2 TOR · MTL 85% → 98% +13MTL 85% → 98%+13 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Canadiens 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 54%
- Fair odds
- MTL -104
- TOR +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.2 – 3.2 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −3 | MTL: Jacob Fowler: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · TOR: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −3 | −3 | Key absences: Kirill Marchenko, Mike Matheson |
| Elo ratings | MTL +29 Elo | MTL 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 50.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.67th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.318th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.411th of 32 |
| 15th of 3249.4% | Shot share | 48.7%21st of 32 |
| 13th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 89.6%11th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 3rd of 325–2 | Road vs home | 4–523rd of 32 |
| 19th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 149521st of 32 |
| 6th of 321534 | Elo rating | 148022nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–10 | 9–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–9 | 2–8 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 7–0 |
| Overs–unders | 11–5 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 5–7 TOR in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.