Montreal Canadiens at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
STL went from 54% to 52% over 4 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, October 26 at 3:19 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Zack BolducGoals1
- Mike MathesonAssists2
- Mike MathesonPoints2
BluesScoring summary
- P32:17Florian Xhekaj Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Mike Matheson (3), Kirby Dach (3)2–0
- P28:37Zachary Bolduc Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (2), Alexandre Texier (3)1–0
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:37Zachary Bolduc Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (2), Alexandre Texier (3)MTL 1 – 0 STL · MTL 49% → 68% +19MTL 49% → 68%+19 pts
- P32:17Florian Xhekaj Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Mike Matheson (3), Kirby Dach (3)MTL 2 – 0 STL · MTL 74% → 91% +17MTL 74% → 91%+17 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Blues 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- STL 52%
- ML MTL -102 / STL -118
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- STL: Elo 52.1%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- STL -107
- MTL +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.2 – 3.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | +5 | MTL: Jacob Fowler: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −9 | −3 | Key absences: Nick Suzuki, Dillon Dube |
| Elo ratings | STL +14 Elo | STL 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 52.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.214th of 32 |
| 17th of 320.0 | Margin | 0.017th of 32 |
| 10th of 3252.0% | Shot share | 48.2%24th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 89.4%13th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 4th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 3–215th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 15117th of 32 |
| 9th of 321525 | Elo rating | 150315th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–8 | 5–6 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–7 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–4 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 1–5 STL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.