Carolina Hurricanes at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Sean WalkerGoals1
- Seth JarvisAssists2
- Sebastian AhoPoints2
BluesScoring summary
- P34:30Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (11), Andrei Svechnikov (6)4–0
- P213:35Logan Stankoven Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (2)3–0
- P25:05Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (5), Seth Jarvis (1)2–0
- P24:45Sean Walker Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (11), Sebastian Aho (10)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:45Sean Walker Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (11), Sebastian Aho (10)CAR 1 – 0 STL · CAR 56% → 74% +17CAR 56% → 74%+17 pts
- P25:05Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (5), Seth Jarvis (1)CAR 2 – 0 STL · CAR 74% → 87% +13CAR 74% → 87%+13 pts
- P213:35Logan Stankoven Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (2)CAR 3 – 0 STL · CAR 89% → 96% +7CAR 89% → 96%+7 pts
- P34:30Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (11), Andrei Svechnikov (6)CAR 4 – 0 STL · CAR 99% → >99% +1CAR 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Hurricanes 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 58%
- ML CAR -155 / STL +130
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- CAR: Elo 56.0%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CAR -140
- STL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.5 – 3.0 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1589 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +6 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | — | −3 | Key absences: Dillon Dube |
| Elo ratings | CAR +42 Elo | CAR 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 58.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.9 | Goals scored | 3.59th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.115th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+1.2 | Margin | +0.413th of 32 |
| 1st of 3260.1% | Shot share | 49.4%16th of 32 |
| 24th of 3288.0% | Save percentage | 89.3%16th of 32 |
| 2nd of 326–2 | Road vs home | 3–15th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321477 | Opponent Elo | 150215th of 32 |
| 1st of 321589 | Elo rating | 150814th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–6 | 5–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | — | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–6 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 2–4 STL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 6.