Montreal Canadiens at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Lane HutsonGoals1
- Cole CaufieldAssists2
- Cole CaufieldPoints2
Jets- Isak RosenGoals1
- Haydn FleuryAssists1
- Isak RosenPoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:24Isak Rosén Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (5), Haydn Fleury (1)2–1
- P211:04Kaiden Guhle Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (4), Juraj Slafkovský (6)2–0
- P27:19Lane Hutson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (3), Cole Caufield (3)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:19Lane Hutson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (3), Cole Caufield (3)MTL 1 – 0 WPG · MTL 51% → 70% +19MTL 51% → 70%+19 pts
- P211:04Kaiden Guhle Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (4), Juraj Slafkovský (6)MTL 2 – 0 WPG · MTL 71% → 86% +15MTL 71% → 86%+15 pts
- P315:24Isak Rosén Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (5), Haydn Fleury (1)MTL 2 – 1 WPG · WPG <1% → 9% +9WPG <1% → 9%+9 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Canadiens 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 51%
- ML MTL -115 / WPG -105
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- MTL: Elo 48.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MTL -104
- WPG +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.8 – 2.7 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −10 | −5 | MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · WPG: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −9 | — | Key absences: Nick Suzuki |
| Elo ratings | WPG +13 Elo | WPG 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 51.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.626th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 2.98th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.321st of 32 |
| 10th of 3253.3% | Shot share | 46.9%26th of 32 |
| 29th of 3287.5% | Save percentage | 90.6%5th of 32 |
| 10th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 2–327th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 15145th of 32 |
| 12th of 321522 | Elo rating | 148720th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–6 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 6–0 |
| Overs–unders | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 4–2 WPG in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.