Winnipeg Jets at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
MTL went from 60% to 61% over 4 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, November 2 at 9:01 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Kyle ConnorGoals2
- Mark ScheifeleAssists2
- Kyle ConnorPoints2
Canadiens- Cole CaufieldGoals2
- Juraj SlafkovskyAssists2
- Cole CaufieldPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:30Dylan Samberg Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Lowry (4), Gabriel Vilardi (6)5–4
- P319:27Kyle Connor Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (12), Morgan Barron (3)4–4
- P319:00Kyle Connor Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (11)3–4
- P318:03Morgan Barron Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Tyrel Bauer (1), Dylan DeMelo (5)2–4
- P317:21Tyrel Bauer Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Koepke (1), Dylan DeMelo (4)1–4
- P30:46Cole Caufield Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (11), Juraj Slafkovský (9)0–4
- P24:00Cole Caufield Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (6), Juraj Slafkovský (8)0–3
- P118:18Josh Anderson Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Chris Kreider (6), Kaiden Guhle (3)0–2
- P13:05Owen Beck Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Florian Xhekaj (2), Arber Xhekaj (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:05Owen Beck Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Florian Xhekaj (2), Arber Xhekaj (2)WPG 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 61% → 74% +13MTL 61% → 74%+13 pts
- P118:18Josh Anderson Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Chris Kreider (6), Kaiden Guhle (3)WPG 0 – 2 MTL · MTL 75% → 87% +12MTL 75% → 87%+12 pts
- P24:00Cole Caufield Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (6), Juraj Slafkovský (8)WPG 0 – 3 MTL · MTL 88% → 95% +7MTL 88% → 95%+7 pts
- P319:27Kyle Connor Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (12), Morgan Barron (3)WPG 4 – 4 MTL · WPG <1% → 49% +49WPG <1% → 49%+49 pts
- OT3:30Dylan Samberg Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Lowry (4), Gabriel Vilardi (6)WPG 5 – 4 MTL · WPG 48% → 99% +51WPG 48% → 99%+51 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Canadiens 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 61%
- ML WPG +145 / MTL -175
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.8 pts
- MTL: Elo 65.8%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- MTL -156
- WPG +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.4 – 3.1 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +10 | WPG: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · MTL: Jacob Fowler: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | — | −6 | Key absences: Mike Matheson, Nick Suzuki |
| Elo ratings | MTL +113 Elo | MTL 65.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 59.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.3 | Goals scored | 3.411th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.010th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−1.3 | Margin | +0.410th of 32 |
| 28th of 3247.0% | Shot share | 49.9%13th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3288.5% | Save percentage | 89.8%7th of 32 |
| 31st of 321–9 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 25th of 322–6 | Road vs home | 4–316th of 32 |
| 1st of 321523 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 32 |
| 27th of 321470 | Elo rating | 15367th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–8 | 5–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–4 | 1–8 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–9 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 2–5 MTL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.