Winnipeg Jets at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
CAR went from 69% to 71% over 4 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, October 31 at 11:25 AM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets
Hurricanes- Sean WalkerGoals2
- Logan StankovenAssists2
- Logan StankovenPoints3
Scoring summary
- P38:38Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Eric Robinson (5), Shayne Gostisbehere (9)0–7
- P36:53Mark Jankowski Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Stankoven (5)0–6
- P29:09Logan Stankoven Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (13), Nikolaj Ehlers (10)0–5
- P27:41Sean Walker Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (6)0–4
- P22:19Sebastian Aho Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (8), Nikolaj Ehlers (9)0–3
- P21:55Juuso Valimaki Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (8), Logan Stankoven (4)0–2
- P15:16Sean Walker Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (5), Sebastian Aho (12)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:16Sean Walker Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (5), Sebastian Aho (12)WPG 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 70% → 82% +12CAR 70% → 82%+12 pts
- P21:55Juuso Valimaki Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (8), Logan Stankoven (4)WPG 0 – 2 CAR · CAR 81% → 91% +10CAR 81% → 91%+10 pts
- P22:19Sebastian Aho Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (8), Nikolaj Ehlers (9)WPG 0 – 3 CAR · CAR 91% → 96% +5CAR 91% → 96%+5 pts
- P27:41Sean Walker Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (6)WPG 0 – 4 CAR · CAR 97% → >99% +2CAR 97% → >99%+2 pts
- P29:09Logan Stankoven Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (13), Nikolaj Ehlers (10)WPG 0 – 5 CAR · CAR >99% → >99% +1CAR >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Hurricanes 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 71%
- ML WPG +225 / CAR -278
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- CAR: Elo 72.4%, market 70.5%
- Fair odds
- CAR -239
- WPG +239 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.6 – 3.9 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1597 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +2 | WPG: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +168 Elo | CAR 72.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 69.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 69.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 70.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.4 | Goals scored | 3.74th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.43rd of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.9 | Margin | +1.31st of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.1% | Shot share | 59.9%1st of 32 |
| 15th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 89.5%11th of 32 |
| 31st of 321–9 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 23rd of 322–5 | Road vs home | 4–210th of 32 |
| 4th of 321517 | Opponent Elo | 148429th of 32 |
| 25th of 321473 | Elo rating | 15971st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–7 | 7–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–4 | 7–8 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | — |
| Overs–unders | 5–9 | 6–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 3–4 CAR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.