Columbus Blue Jackets at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
CAR went from 67% to 66% over 8 updates; the betting line was first on file Wednesday, October 28 at 2:03 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Denton MateychukGoals1
- Jake ChristiansenAssists1
- Kent JohnsonPoints1
Hurricanes- Mark JankowskiGoals1
- Seth JarvisAssists2
- Seth JarvisPoints2
Scoring summary
- P39:50Kent Johnson Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Charlie Coyle (8), Zach Werenski (9)2–3
- P36:56Denton Mateychuk Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Christiansen (2), Sean Monahan (3)1–3
- P30:16Mark Jankowski Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (4), Jalen Chatfield (3)0–3
- P27:47Logan Stankoven Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (8), Jackson Blake (12)0–2
- P115:51Jordan Martinook Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (3), Jaccob Slavin (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:51Jordan Martinook Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (3), Jaccob Slavin (4)CBJ 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 64% → 78% +14CAR 64% → 78%+14 pts
- P27:47Logan Stankoven Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (8), Jackson Blake (12)CBJ 0 – 2 CAR · CAR 79% → 90% +12CAR 79% → 90%+12 pts
- P30:16Mark Jankowski Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (4), Jalen Chatfield (3)CBJ 0 – 3 CAR · CAR 93% → 98% +5CAR 93% → 98%+5 pts
- P36:56Denton Mateychuk Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Christiansen (2), Sean Monahan (3)CBJ 1 – 3 CAR · CBJ <1% → 4% +3CBJ <1% → 4%+3 pts
- P39:50Kent Johnson Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Charlie Coyle (8), Zach Werenski (9)CBJ 2 – 3 CAR · CBJ 3% → 15% +12CBJ 3% → 15%+12 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Hurricanes 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 66%
- ML CBJ +180 / CAR -218
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- CAR: Elo 68.3%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- CAR -192
- CBJ +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.8 – 3.7 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1596 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +2 | CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +134 Elo | CAR 68.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 65.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 66.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.84th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.44th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.7 | Margin | +1.42nd of 32 |
| 24th of 3247.7% | Shot share | 60.5%1st of 32 |
| 21st of 3288.9% | Save percentage | 89.3%16th of 32 |
| 19th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 3–215th of 32 |
| 9th of 321507 | Opponent Elo | 148329th of 32 |
| 18th of 321493 | Elo rating | 15961st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–7 | 7–7 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–5 | 7–7 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | — |
| Overs–unders | 5–5 | 6–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 4–8 CAR in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.